人口老龄化对长期照护体系的影响探析

【作者】 郑丽梅；

【导师】 李仲生；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 人口学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 在我国人口老龄化已是一个不争的事实。据2009年度民政事业发展统计报告显示,当年我国65岁及以上老年人口达到1.13亿,占总人口的8.5%。在我国人口老龄化高速增长的同时,高龄化的趋势也非常明显。《2009年度中国老龄事业发展统计公报》显示80岁以上高龄老年人口达到1899万,且今后每年以100万速度增加。笔者根据2000年人口五普数据、2005年人口抽样调查数据及历年人口抽样调查数据保守估计到本世纪中叶,我国65岁及以上老年人口将达到3.1亿,从而步入世界人口老龄化的最高行列。我国人口老龄化、高龄化的同时,我国老年人群体的健康状态不容乐观。在这种情况下,我国老年长期照料需求呈现加速增长趋势。那么到本世纪中叶,我国需要长期照护的老人规模是多少?其特点又是什么?在经济学中,精确分析与预测未来市场供需及分布,是有效发展与规划相关体系的重要基石。运用于此处,笔者认为精确预测未来需要长期照料老年人口规模非常重要,因为这是长期照料体系规划工作的基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Population aging in China is an indisputable fact.According to 2009 statistical report conducted by Development of Civil Affairs shows that, our elderly population aged 65 and over to reach 113 million of the total population of 8.5%.With the rapid population aging in China’s growth, the elderly aging trend is also very obvious."2009 Statistical Bulletin of China Aging Development" shows that the elderly population over the age of 80 have reached 18.99 million, and the future rate of increase of 100 million per year. According to the author predicted that by mid-century of 21st the elderly population aged 65 and over will reach 3.1 billions. Then China will get into the highest ranks of the aging population in the world.Since the start of family planning, the last century, population control in China has made remarkable achievements. Since the 90 years the birth rate has fallen below the population replacement level. With the first generation of one-child parents into old age, elderly empty-nest families will further increase created a significant challenge to the traditional home care.The health of the elderly population, aging at the same time, is not very good. In this case, needs of elderly long-term care have showed accelerated growth trend. By the middle of this century, how many elderly people need long-term care in our country and what’s their characterization?更多还原