美国玉米补贴政策的影响分析

【作者】 朱冬雪；

【导师】 胡荣花；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 粮食问题是一个国家的基本问题,粮食安全不仅牵涉到一国的长期发展,其价格的短期波动也会对国内经济形势的稳定造成影响。各国对粮食生产和粮食贸易的保护政策由来已久,本文通过研究美国玉米补贴政策对其国内玉米生产和价格的影响来探讨发达国家农业补贴政策对保护和发展本国农业产业的作用。同时,由于我国不断提高国际农产品市场的参与度和我国农业产业发展的相对落后,研究美国的玉米补贴政策对我国农业政策的制定也具有重要的借鉴意义。回顾美国农业政策的变迁似乎可以得出美国的农业保护措施渐渐与农产品价格脱钩,农业补贴对农产品国际贸易的扭曲作用越来越小的结论,但深入分析后发现美国玉米补贴对玉米价格的影响并未消失,而是以提高玉米生产技术和保护农业生产环境等更隐蔽的形式存在。同时,由于美国的玉米出口在世界市场上占有重要地位,其通过补贴形式促进玉米出口从而拉低世界市场玉米价格的政策手段必然是以其他玉米出口国的利益损失为代价的,这也是美国同许多发展中国家贸易战的原因,因而,研究美国玉米补贴政策对玉米产销的影响为我国利用WTO谈判机制保护自身利益提供了重要的依据。本文利用美国1990年以来玉米补贴的相关数据进行实证研究发现,尽管补贴对玉米播种面积的增加影响有限,但是美国政府通过加大对农业生产的科技扶持和对农村环境的保护使美国玉米亩产增加迅速,且利用农民的最优化方程进行分析进一步验证了补贴使产量增加价格下降的理论,同时,通过对美国农民的收入进行分析也发现,要想对生产获得同样的刺激效果,所需的补贴额度要不断增加,也即补贴使政府的财政负担越来越大。本文共分为五章,第一章介绍了本文的研究背景和基本思路,对相关文献进行了回顾,并展现了研究的创新性和不足；第二章阐述了补贴相关的理论；第三章概述了美国玉米补贴政策的变迁,并分析了80年代以来历次变迁的主要动因及由此产生的经济效应,说明美国玉米补贴政策不单单是影响了玉米产销,它同时还对整个玉米产业,乃至农村的发展带来重要影响；第四章具体分析了美国玉米补贴政策对其国内玉米产出和价格的影响；最后,第五章对前文的研究进行了总结,并就现阶段欧、美发达国家和地区的高补贴农业政策对我国农业产业的发展提出了一些政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture is the key problem for a country’s long-run coordinated development and the fluctuation of the price of the agricultural products in short-run period is critical for the economic steadiness. The agriculture protection and agricultural products trade control has a long history for every country in this world. This paper investigates the effect of US corn subsidy policy to the corn price and production to analyses how the developed countries’ agriculture subsidy protect and develop their agriculture. Meanwhile owning to the less developed situation of agriculture in our country and the more and more important role we play in word market, analyzing the US corn subsidy policy is important to develop our own agricultural policy.Looking back to the history of US agricultural policy, we can find their agriculture protection measure is decoupling with the specific agricultural price, while through a more detailed investigation to US corn subsidy after 2002, we find that the distortion of US corn subsidy to world corn price remains, but taking the form of environment-protecting and technology-assisting measures. Furthermore, because of the pricing right of US in world corn market, its corn subsidy will increase the corn supply in world market, and pull down the corn price, in this process the other corn export countries suffer economic loss, therefore international trade conflicts are caused. Thus investigating how the US corn subsidy distorts international trade will be helpful for us to protect ourselves by using WTO negotiation procedure.This paper is made up of five chapters, the first chapter introduced the research background and the basic research ideas, consolidated the relevant literature and demonstrated the innovation and lack of my study; chapter two reviewed the related theory; chapter three summarized the change of US corn subsidy policies, and analyzed why the policy change a lot after 1980’s, a more detailed investigation revealed that not only the sales and production of corn are affected by subsidy policy, the development of the whole country area is also related with the subsidy policy; chapter four analyzed how the US corn subsidy affected its domestic corn production and price; the last chapter summered the previous study and conclude.更多还原