【作者】 张谦；

【导师】 荆朝霞；

【作者基本信息】 华南理工大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 电力市场仿真是研究电力市场运行规律的一个非常有效的方法。近年来,基于代理的计算经济学方法在电力市场仿真研究中得到了国内外研究人员广泛的关注,并取得了较多的研究成果。然而,基于代理的市场仿真方法还有很多问题没有解决。其中,最基本的一个问题是研究方法的问题,例如,模型参数应该如何校正、仿真实验应该如何设计、仿真结果应该如何分析等。由于基于代理的仿真模型本身具有异质性和不稳定性特点再加上没有统一的研究方法,导致不同研究结果没有可比性,大大限制了基于代理的计算经济学方法在电力市场仿真研究中的发展和应用。本文针对实验的设计方法、结果的分析方法等电力市场仿真中的问题,引入实验设计与数据处理分析理论,运用正交实验设计、对比析因实验设计、方差分析的方法,并使用SPSS(Statistical Product and Service Solutions,统计产品与服务解决方案)软件进行辅助分析。本文的主要研究工作包括:(1)探讨了电力市场仿真的基本问题,电力市场仿真研究的主要应用方向,市场规则研究、市场环境研究、报价策略研究等方面中能够影响电力市场运行的主要因素。分析了不同的电力市场仿真研究方法。(2)将实验设计与数据处理分析理论应用到电力市场仿真实验中,综合运用不同的实验设计方法和统计检验方法,为不同目的的电力仿真实验制定实验计划,设计实验流程。(3)对仿真实验的结果进行了系统分析,找出了复杂的影响因素中的主要因素和次要因素,并对各影响因素的设置搭配做出了优化。实验结果表明本文提出的研究方法能够解决电力市场仿真实验中的实验设计和数据分析的部分问题,对建立科学、系统的电力市场仿真研究实验方法有积极意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power market simulation turns to be a very effective method to study on power market operating rules.In recent years, power market simulation by ACE is widely studied by foreign and domestic researchers who have done many researches on it. However, there are still many issues which have not solved, among which, analyze method is a basic problem, for example, how to correct the parameters, how to design the simulation, how to analyze the simulation results etc. the heterogeneity and instability features of the model plus no unified research methods cause different results incomparable, which greatly limits the development and application of ACE method in power market simulation.This paper introduces experimental design and data processing analysis theory, uses the orthogonal experiment design method, variance analysis method and contrast factorial experiment design method , besides, SPSS(statistical product and service solutions) is also used as an assistant software to solve the experimental design and result analysis problems. Main research work in this paper includes:(1) The first chapter discusses the basic problems and main application direction of power market simulation , and main factors which affect the market operation such as market rules, market environment and bidding strategy. Different simulation methods are also analyzed in this chapter.(2) Systematized analysis is done on the simulation results to find out the main factors and secondary factors of all the complex influence factors ,and optimization is made on the setting collocation of each affecting factors.(3) experimental design method and data processing analysis theory are applied to the simulation to draw up experiment plan and design formulated procedures by using different experiment design methods and statistic test methods.The simulation results shows that the research method proposed in the paper can solve some problems on experiment design and data analysis, and it has positive significance in establishing scientific and systematized research method of power market simulation.更多还原