【作者】 张栋；

【导师】 郑书彦；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 地质工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 山洪地质灾害是我国较为严重的自然灾害之一,在各种自然灾害中,山洪地质灾害所造成的损失和人员伤亡相当严重,所以我国防止山洪地质灾害的形势相当严峻。研究表明,很多地质灾害如滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、塌陷等,都是由洪水引起的次生灾害,因此,对于洪水的研究越来越受到各级政府和专业技术人员的高度重视。大量的事实表明,洪水具有不确定性,研究分析洪水灾害较为困难,但是洪水灾害风险分析可以对洪灾不确定性进行客观描述,因此洪水灾害风险分析成为目前洪灾研究的热点。本研究主要是利用ArcGIS技术,通过收集温州市典型研究区洪水灾害风险分析的相关资料,建立了洪水灾害风险评估相关的模型,在建立模型的基础上,采用层次分析法与ArcGIS空间分析方法,从温州市洪水灾害危险性分析、易损性分析和洪水灾害风险区划三个方面进行了温州市洪水灾害风险分析。在综合分析温州市典型研究区洪灾危险性、易损性以及洪水灾害风险区划的基础上,最终形成温州市台风暴雨灾情评估可视化软件,为政府的防洪安全决策提供依据。主要认识和结论包括以下6个方面：(1)温州市典型研究区划分：本文根据温州市自然地理概况,结合温州市行政区划和堤坝分布,以乡镇作为基本单元,将温州市洪灾典型研究区划分为鳌江流域、飞云江流域、楠溪江流域和柳乐平原、温瑞平原、瑞平平原、南港平原等7个淹没灾情研究典型区。(2)温州市典型区域洪水灾害风险理论：温州市典型区域洪水灾害风险理论是由温州市典型区域洪水灾害危险性、易损性和洪水灾害区划组成,结合温州市洪水灾害特点,来综合考虑温州市7个典型研究区洪水灾害风险区划研究。(3)温州市典型区域危险性分析：建立基于ArcGIS的风险评估模型,对温州市7个典型研究区的不同水平面的淹没范围、水深分布和变化特征分析,以及相应的耕地、房屋、人口、居民点和道路的淹没分析,综合以上分析以乡镇为评价单元,将温州市7个典型研究区划分为3个等级,高危险性Ⅲ、中危险性Ⅱ和低危险性Ⅰ。(4)温州市典型区域易损性分析：选取了耕地、房屋、人口、居民点和道路五项指标作为温州市典型研究区易损性影响因子,并对其进行了分级和确定权重值,得出温州市典型研究区综合易损性因子影响度分布图和综合易损性因子影响度。以乡镇为评价单元,综合以上分析,将温州市7个典型研究区易损性等级划分为3个等级,即高易损性Ⅲ、中易损性Ⅱ和低易损性Ⅰ。(5)温州市典型研究区洪灾风险区划：在温州市典型研究区危险性分析与温州市典型研究区易损性分析二者基础上,通过对危险性与易损性不同等级赋值,利用风险度(R)=危险度(H)×易损度(v)的公式,以乡镇为评价单元,将温州市7个典型研究区进行风险性划分为3个等级,即高风险性Ⅲ、中风险性Ⅱ和低风险性Ⅰ,并利用ArcGIS技术叠置合成温州市各典型研究区风险区划图。(6)温州市台风暴雨灾情评估软件设计开发：以ArcGIS为技术平台,设计开发温州市台风暴雨灾情评估系统,实现温州市台风暴雨数据、洪灾和潮灾淹没区的快速查询、更新和显示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mountain flood geological disaster more serious geological disasters in China’s natural disasters, in a variety of natural disasters, geological disasters caused by flash floods damage and casualties very seriously, so to prevent flash floods in China’s situation is quite serious geological disasters. Research shows that many geological disasters such as landslides, avalanches, landslides, subsidence, etc., are secondary disasters caused by floods, so the flood studies for more and more levels of government and professional and technical staff are highly valued.The fact that a large number of studies show that the uncertainty of the flood disaster is nature of flood disasters, flood risk analysis become a research hotspot, which is flood uncertainty as an objective description of the line. This study is based on ArcGIS technology, through the collection of Wenzhou typical risk analysis of flood related information, and the establishment of flood-related disaster risk assessment model based on AHP and ArcGIS with spatial analysis methods. The three aspects of flood risk analysis from Wenzhou City, flooding risk analysis, vulnerability analysis, and flood risk zonation of Wenzhou City,. on the basis of the comprehensive analysis of typical flood hazard areas, vulnerability and flood risk division in WenZhou city, and ultimately the formation of typhoons and storms damage assessment Wenzhou visualization software has been finished,which was for the government’s flood control decisions. Understanding and conclusions of the main six areas, including the following.(1) Based on the natural and geographical overview of Wenzhou, Wenzhou City, which was with distribution of administrative divisions and dams, the study area was divided into the typical flood of Wenzhou Aojiang River, Feiyun River basin, watershed and Liu Leping Nanxi original, Wen Ruiping original, Rui Pingping the original, such as the South Plains of 7 typical area inundated disaster as the basic unit of the township.(2) Wenzhou typical regional flood disaster risk theory is that is typical of regional flood disaster in Wenzhou from Wenzhou, a typical risk analysis of flood hazard areas, vulnerability, flood hazard zonation composition,which was combined with characteristics of Wenzhou City, thus the rask analysis of typical region in WenZhou city included Wenzhou 7 a typical study area of flood risk zonation.(3) Which was the establishment of the risk assessment model based on ArcGIS about typical of the study area,which was Wenzhou 7 different level of the submerged area, which was included depth analysis of distribution and variation analysis, and the corresponding land like housing, such as population or residents points and flooded roads.Which was the the above comprehensive analysis for the evaluation of the township units, the Wenzhou seven typical study area was divided into three levels, high riskⅢ, the riskⅡ, low risk ofⅠ.(4) Which was Wenzhou typical regional vulnerability analysis. Including the cultivated land, housing, population, settlements and roads,there are five typical indicators as vulnerability factors.In the study area, and its vulnerability determined the impact of grading and factor weights, and then came to the study area, Which was done Wenzhou typical factors affecting the degree of comprehensive vulnerability and integrated distribution of the degree of vulnerability factors. Based on the above analysis, in evaluation of the township units the Wenzhou seven typical level of vulnerability of the study area is divided into three levels, which was named high vulnerabilityⅢ, the vulnerabilityⅡ, low vulnerabilityⅠ(5) Wenzhou typical flood risk zonation of the study area is based on typical of the study area in Wenzhou and Wenzhou typical risk analysis in the study area. The vulnerability analysis carried out both by risk and vulnerability of different levels of the assignment,which was the use of risk level (R)=risk (H)×vulnerability (v) the formula for the evaluation of the township units about the study area. Wenzhou typical risk is divided into three levels, namely high-risk sexualⅢ, the riskⅡ, low risk ofⅠ, and the use of ArcGIS technology Wenzhou typical synthesis of the study area superimposed Risk Maps.(6) Which was Wenzhou typhoon storm damage assessment software design and development. To make use of ArcGIS platform for technology, Wenzhou City rainstorm disaster evaluation system was designed and developed, and data Wenzhou typhoons, floods and tidal flood disaster area quickly query, update and display.更多还原