隧道塌方风险预测与控制研究

【作者】 李风云；

【导师】 王薇；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 土木工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 隧道在施工建设过程中,塌方是最为常见的典型事故。塌方一旦发生,不仅延误工期、大幅度地提高工程费用,而且会威胁到施工和技术人员的人身安全,所以,对隧道的塌方进行科学的预测和控制具有非常重要的现实意义。本文以隧道施工塌方灾害为对象展开研究,主要研究内容和研究成果如下：(1)收集和整理了300例有关公路、铁路以及地铁隧道塌方的资料,对隧道施工前和施工阶段可能涉及到的所有塌方影响因素进行了全面系统的分类统计研究,在对隧道塌方原因综合分析研究的基础上建立了隧道塌方原因关系树。(2)鉴于国内尚没有足够的隧道塌方风险事故数据,本文利用前章对隧道塌方事故原因研究的成果,对影响塌方因子进行选择以及量化研究并基于SVM神经网络理论,建立了隧道塌方的SVM预测模型,并利用Libsvm工具箱编制相关程序,创新性地提出了适用于隧道塌方的网络预测系统,该方法可以迅速科学地进行塌方灾害预测。(3)基于前人对隧道塌方风险控制的研究成果并结合本文对隧道塌方原因分析和预测的研究内容,本文将对隧道塌方控制研究分为两阶段进行：隧道施工前和隧道施工阶段。并针对隧道工程项目施工前和隧道施工时两阶段分别详细系统阐述了隧道塌方控制技术措施。通过预测指标体系的建立,预测方法的提出,预测模型的建立与计算程序的开发,控制措施的研究,实现了对隧道塌方施工安全风险进行量化预测以及全面系统和科学化的隧道塌方风险控制的目标,为隧道塌方安全管理理论与方法及在实际工程中的具体应用和发展提供了参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cave-in is the most frequent accident during the construction of a tunnel. Once it happens, not only the schedule will be interrupted, but also the construction cost will be increased greatly and the life of the builders and technicians will be threatened. Therefore, a scientific prediction and control of tunnel cave-in is of great importance. This thesis aims at the study of this scourge. The main research contents and findings are shown as follows:(1) The data from 300 road, railway and subway cave-ins are collected and sorted out for a systematical classified statistical research on all the factors concerned with cave-in before and in the middle of the construction of a tunnel and on the basis of the comprehensive analysis, a relational tree of runnel cave-in factors is put forward.(2) Considering there are not enough data on tunnel cave-in in our country, the research findings of some predecessors are used here for the selection and quantitative study of the influencing factors of cave-in and, on the basis of SVM neural network theory, a tunnel cave-in SVM prediction model is built while related programs are developed by using a Libsvm tool box. Also suggested is a creative tunnel cave-in network prediction system, by which a tunnel cave-in can be predicted rapidly and scientifically.(3) On the basis of the predecessors’research findings, and analysis and prediction of cave-in causes done in this thesis, the research on the control of tunnel cave-in is divided into two phases:before and during the construction of a tunnel, while countermeasures are narrated in detail accordingly.The quantitative prediction of tunnel cave-in can be effected and the risks under systematic and scientific control after the prediction index system is created, some prediction methods are suggested, the prediction model is built, some calculation programs are developed, and some regulatory measures are found out. Therefore, references can be given to the theoretical and methodological tunnel cave-in security management and its use and development in practical engineering.更多还原