【作者】 左永君；

【导师】 何秉宇；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 人文地理学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 利用1949-2007年的新疆人口统计数据和行政区划图等资料,运用GIS、时间序列分析、聚类分析、地统计学等多种方法探讨了新疆人口数量的时序变化特征并对其变化趋势进行了预测,分析了新疆人口数量的空间结构性,结果表明:(1)近60a来,新疆的总人口增长迅速,净增1661.85×10~4人。各少数民族人口数量不断上升,维吾尔族和汉族分别增长了635.95×10~4人和794.82×10~4人,俄罗斯族、塔塔尔族人口数量有所下降,分别减少了0.79×10~4人、0.20×10~4人。农业人口所占的比例下降了28.32个百分点,非农业人口所占比例从1949年的15.00%增加到2007年的43.32%。(2)新疆人口的出生率和自然增长率均有较强的波动性,且变化规律基本一致。1949-1958年,二者逐渐增大,分别从30.02‰、9.02‰增至31.03‰、18.03‰。1976年以后整体趋势下降,至2007年时分别为16.79‰和11.78‰。性别比总体趋势减小,最后基本趋于正常,其最大年(1960年)为123.23,最小年(1980年)为10~4.23。(3)2011-2020年,新疆的人口数量仍将不断增加,年均增长32.33万人。2020年人口数量将超过2500万,比2005年多出近500万。人口的性别比变化比较稳定,从2007性别比为105左右发展到2011～2020年仅为105～107之间;少数民族人口数量在不断上升,到2020年将突破1500万,占新疆总人口的75%,平均增长率为1.56%;非农业人口比例变化在2011-2020年内趋于上升趋势,在十年中上升了15个百分点,平均每年增加1.5个百分点。(4)北疆地区的人口密度为46.97人/km2,明显高于南疆(13.37人/km2)和东疆(6.37人/km~2)地区。各区少数民族人口数量占总人口的百分比差异很大,总体上南疆高,北疆、东疆低,其中和田地区最高(96.54%),昌吉州最小(25.61%)。各县(市)总人口在空间上正负相关并存,呈碎片化分布特征,表现出较大的空间变异性,但空间自相关性强烈。维吾尔族、汉族以及哈萨克族人口的空间自相关也较强烈,但随滞后距离的增加,空间正相关性减弱,负相关关系增强。维吾尔族人口的空间自相关影响范围高达2110km,覆盖全疆,而汉族、哈萨克族人口的则分别只有34km和125km。(5)新疆人口自然增长率具有南高北低、西高东低的空间分布规律,北疆的平均值(6.68‰)远低于南疆的平均值(16.72‰)。而非农业人口百分比整体上呈现出南低北高的态势,其低比例地区平均值仅为25.20%,高比例区平均值则高达58.48%。随滞后距离的增加,人口自然增长率的自相关性逐渐减弱。非农业人口的Moran’I指数随滞后距离的增长正负交替出现,结构方差比为0,不具有空间自相关性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on Xinjiang population datas, administrative map and other data, using GIS, time series analysis, cluster analysis, geostatistics and other methods, this paper investigated and forecasted the time serial change, spatial distribution and structure of population in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2007 . The results showed:(1)In recent 60 years, total Xinjiang population rapidly increased 1661.85×10~4 persons. Each minority population continuously increased. The Uygur and Han separately increased 635.95×10~4 and 794.82×10~4,Russia and Tatar separately decreased 0.79×10~4 and 0.20×10~4. The agriculture population ratio decreased 28.32 percentage point, while non-agriculture population ratio increased from 15.00% of 1949 year to 43.32% of 2007year.(2)Birth rate and natural increase rate of Xinjiang population both had strong volatility, and the varying law basically were the same. Year 1949 to 1958, they were gradually increased, separately increased from 30.02‰, 9.02‰to 31.03‰and 18.03‰. After 1976, they both decreased, when they were 16.79‰and 11.78‰in 2007. The general trend of sex ratio was decreased, and was normal in the end. Its largest number was 123.23 in 1960, and the least number was 10~4.23 in 1980.(3)2011 to 2020, Xinjiang population would still increased year by year, and annual ncrease 323.3 thousand persons. In 2020, the population would pass 25000 thousand, 5000 thousand more than in 2005. The change of sex ratio was stable, from 105 in 2007 to 105 into 107 in 2011 to 2020. The minority population increased stablly, the average increased ratio was 1.56%. In 2020, it would high up to 15000 thousand, and would to ratio 75%. non-agriculture population ratio would also increased stablly, and its increased ratio was 15%, annual increased ratio was 1.5%. (4)Population density of North Xinjiang was 46.97 peaple per squre kilomiters, higher than Sourth Xinjiang (13.37) and East Xinjiang (6.37). The percentage of minority differed a lot among zones. In general, Sourth Xinjiang was higher than North and East Xinjiang. Minority percentage in Hetian was the highest of 96.54%, and was lowest in Changji of only 25.61%.County population both had positive and impositive spatial correlation, districted in fragments, showed strong spatial variability, but the spatial correlation was also intense. The spatial correlation of Uygur, Han and Kazak population were stong, whereas the positive spatial correlation weakened by distance, and the impositive spatial correlation enhanced. The Uygur self-correlation affecting spatial distance was enough to over the whole Xinjiang of 2110 km. In the mean while, the distance of Han and Kazak population were 34 km and 125 km.(5)The natural increase rate of Xinjiang population showed a law, that it was high in the South and was low in the North. Average value of North Xinjiang was 6.68‰, Much lower than South Xinjiang of 16.72‰. But the non-agricultural population percentage behaved the opposite state.Its Average value of low percentage zones was only 25.20%, yet this value could be 58.48% in the high percentage zones. The spatial self-correlation of natural increase rate gradually drooped. Moran’I of non-agricultural population both had positive and impositive values, when distance added. Its ratio of Structure to variance was 0, indicated that it did non have spatial self-correlation.更多还原