基于GIS的住宅房产特征价格估价模型及应用研究

【作者】 刘小春；

【导师】 刘小生； 陈传胜；

【作者基本信息】 江西理工大学 ， 测绘工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 由于房地产价格的不完全市场特性,需要专业估价人员根据市场信息利用一定的估价方法进行估价。现有的估价方法在实际估价过程中过于主观化,过度依赖房地产估价师的主观经验,这不仅使估价结果显得不可靠,更有可能引发道德风险,影响房地产估价市场的持续健康稳定发展。特征价格模型自提出以来,由于其客观、准确、较少依赖专家经验,在国外房产行业已经得到广泛应用并逐步被引进国内房产估价行业。在特征价格估价模型中,特征因素的量化和函数拟合是影响模型准确性的关键因素,GIS为其提供良好的分析手段和管理平台,研究基于GIS的特征价格模型具有重要意义。本文首先对特征价格理论及模型的发展进行了综述,并从住宅特征角度确定了影响住宅价格的主要因素;其次以GIS为平台,对特征价格估价模型进行了重构,结合GIS的查询分析功能,建立了住宅房产的量化标准并对其进行量化,为提高对量化结果拟合的准确性,在提供传统的线性回归拟合方式之外,提供了主成分分析功能,利用主成分分析减少拟合变量之间的共线性,提高拟合精度;然后,以估价模型为基础,对基于估价模型的房产评估系统进行了总体和数据库设计,并以ArcGIS为平台,用C#语言开发了估价模型系统;以赣州住宅房产估价为例,对估价模型进行了验证,证明估价模型具有较高精度,能够满足实际的应用需求,具有推广应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 As real estate prices do not fully market characteristics, professional appraisers need to market information and base on the valuation method to value. The existing method of valuation in the valuation process in practice there are too subjective, over.reliance on the subjective experience of Real Estate Appraisers, which valuation results not only does not seem reliable, are more likely to lead to moral hazard, and affect the stability of real estate valuation market in health development.Since the hedonic price model was proposed, because of its objective, accurate, and less dependent on expert experience, in foreign real estate industry it has been widely used and was introducted to the domestic real estate valuation industry. In the hedonic price valuation models, the features factors to quantify and functions to fit that affect model accuracy of the key, GIS provide good analytical tools and management platform and studying GIS.based hedonic price model is of great significanceThis article firstly reviews the development of Characteristic Price Model and Characteristic Price Theory, and describes the main influencing housing price factors at residential characteristic angle. Secondly this article reconstructs characteristic price evaluation model in GIS platform, then combines characteristic price evaluation model with GIS query functions, it establishes the quantified standard analysis function of residential property and carries out the quantification. In order to enhause quantified results accuracy,besides providing traditional colinearity regression way, another principal component analysis function is also provided, by using principal component analysis for reducing the colinearity between fitting variables, so that it could increase the colinearity accuracy. Thirdly based on the evaluation model , this article produces overall.design and database.design on real estate evaluation model system, via ArcGIS platform and C# programming language , aiming at developing the evaluation model system;this system takes one of residential real estate appraisals where is located at Ganzhou as example, then makes a verification on the evaluation model aiming at a higher accuracy proof evaluation model , the goal is to confirm the evaluation model can achieve the practical application requirement, along with strong popularize application value.更多还原