【作者】 张忠伟；

【导师】 赵志忠； 张京红；

【作者基本信息】 海南师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 海南岛地处热带地区,素有“台风走廊”之称,每次登陆的台风都会影响地区的经济发展和人民生命财产安全,其中对农业生产影响最大。海南岛具有发展橡胶种植的优越环境条件,同时又是橡胶生产气候脆弱性显著的地区,橡胶生产过程中对各气候因素变化敏感程度高,每年台风灾害都会严重影响海南岛橡胶的产量。因此,本文选择海南岛作为研究区,在橡胶灾害形成环境背景和台风灾害数据库的基础上,利用RS与GIS技术综合考虑台风的降水、大风和地形等因素,并结合统计学方法、自然灾害风险评估方法,进行海南岛橡胶种植台风灾害风险评价与区划。通过研究,获得的主要结论如下:(1)从橡胶台风灾害致灾因子危险性分布来看,高危险区主要位于台风登陆频次较高的琼海与文昌等地;较高危险区主要位于五指山、乐东大部分和保亭、三亚的西部地区;中等危险区位于保亭和三亚的东部、万宁、陵水、琼中和东方的南部及澄迈中部地区;较低危险区位于海口北部、澄迈、屯昌、琼中、东方、白沙、东方、三亚、陵水沿海和保亭的中部;低危险区多分布于中部山区及西部受山脉保护的沿海市县。(2)从橡胶台风灾害敏感性来看,橡胶台风灾害受地形影响大,同一区域可能因地形差异,高敏感区可以与低敏感区并存,区内低敏感区主要分布在昌江县、临高县、海口市、定安县、儋州市;较低敏感区分布在昌江县、保亭县、五指山市、陵水县、文昌市;中等敏感区分布在陵水县、乐东县、三亚市、昌江县、万宁县;较高敏感区分布在昌江县、东方市、五指山市、儋州市、保亭县;高敏感区分布在昌江县、东方市、五指山市、儋州市、琼中县。(3)海南岛的橡胶台风灾害高易损性分布区主要位于橡胶种植面积最大儋州市;较高易损性分布区主要位于琼海、琼中、白沙等地;中等易损性分布区主要位于万宁、海口、澄迈、定安、临高;较低易损性分布区主要在文昌、保亭、屯昌等地;低易损性分布区主要分布在三亚、东方等地。(4)从防灾减灾能力分布来看,海南岛高防灾减灾能力分布区位于橡胶种植面积最多的儋州市、乐东县;较高防灾减灾能力分布区位于琼海、海口、临高;中等防灾减灾能力分布区主要包括文昌、万宁、昌江,较低防灾减灾能力分布区包括三亚、澄迈;低防灾减灾能力分布区主要包括陵水、屯昌、琼中、五指山、保亭等市县。(5)总体来说,海南岛橡胶台风灾害低风险区域面积为853.44km~2,占研究区总面积的20.43%;较低风险区域面积为1002.15km~2,占研究区总面积的23.99%;中等风险区域面积为1042.17km~2,占研究区总面积的24.95%;较高风险区域面积为976.49km~2,占研究区总面积的23.38%;高风险区域面积为302.82km~2,占研究区总面积的7.25%;橡胶台风灾害风险区在各市县分布的面积从小到大的排列为:陵水县<文昌市<屯昌县<东方市<海口市<五指山市<白沙县<琼海市<琼中县<保亭县<澄迈县<乐东县<昌江县<儋州市<定安县<万宁市。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hainan Island is located in the tropics, known as "typhoon corridor", each landfall typhoon will effect the economic development and people’s live, the most effection on agricultural production. Hainan Island has the superior environmental conditions to the development of rubber plantations, but the climate vulnerability of rubber production is significant, the course of rubber production is very sensitivity to the change of climate, typhoon effects the production of rubber in Hainan Island seriously every year. Therefore, this article selected Hainan Island as the research area, based on the formation of environmental background in the rubber and typhoon disasters databases, used RS and GIS technologies considering the typhoon precipitation, wind and terrain and the topography factors, and combined statistical method with natural disaster Risk Assessment Technology, Assesed and planed the typhoon risk of rubber plantations in Hainan Island.Through research, the main conclusions obtained are as follows:(1) The damage hazard risks are mainly distributed as follows: The highest-risk areas are mainly located in higher frequency of typhoon Qionghai and Wenchang and other east coast places. Higher risk areas are mainly located Wuzhishan, most part of Ledong, Baoting and most part of the western of Sanya. Medium risk area is located in the eastern Sanya and Baoting, Wanning, Lingshui, Qiongzhong, southeast of Dongfang and central regions Chengmai; less risk area are located in the north of Haikou, Chengmai, Tunchang, Qiongzhong, Dongfang, Baisha, Dongfang and other regional and local cities and counties in Sanya, Lingshui and Baoting. Low risk areas are located in central and western mountain district which are protected by coastal cities and counties.(2) Sensitivity point of view from the typhoon of rubber, rubber typhoon affected by the terrain big difference in the same region may be due to terrain, high-sensitive areas can coexist with low-sensitive areas. Sensitivity area distribution: Low-risk area are located in Changjiang,Lingao,Haikou,Dingan, Danzhou; Less sensitive areas of the distribution area: Changjiang,Baoting,Wuzhishan,Lingshui,Wenchang; Medium-sensitive area of distribution: Lingshui,Ledong,Sanya,Changjiang,Wanning Baoting; Higher sensitive area Distribution: Changjiang,Dongfang,Wuzhishan,Danzhou,Baoting; The Highest sensitive area of distribution:Changjiang,Dongfang,Wuzhishan,Danzhou,Qiongzhong.(3) The highest vulnerability disaster zone distribution of rubber planting the largest area in Danzhou.Higher and easy Damaged areas are mainly located in Qinghai, Qingzhong, Baisha; Medium vulnerability located in Wanning, Haikou, Chengmai, Ding’an, Lingao; lower vulnerability area is located in Wenchang, Baoting, Tunchang Low vulnerability distribution mainly in Sanya,Dongfang.(4) The distribution of disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities: It is located in the largest rubber planting of Danzhou and Ledong; Higher resilience area is located in Qionghai, Haikou, Lingao; Medium-disaster mitigation areas mainly Wenchagn, Wanning, Changjiang; The lower areas of disaster mitigation area are included Linshi, Tunchang, Qingzhong, Wuzhishan, Baoting and other cities.(5) As a whole,the typhoon affected of rubber lower risk of Hainan Island area is 853.44 (km~2), 20.43% of the total study area; low risk1002.15(km~2), 23.99% of the total land; Medium risk area 1042.17(km~2), of the total land 24.95%; Higher risk area is 976.49(km~2), 23.38% of the total land area;The Highest-risk area is 302.82(km~2), 7.25% of total land; The size of risk zone distributed in each cityand couty ranged from small to large:Linshui <Wenchang<Tunchag<Dongfang<Haikou<Wuzhishan<Baisha<Qionghai<Qingzhong<Baoting <Chengmai<Ledong<Changjiang<Danzhou<Dingan<Wangning.更多还原