【作者】 张伟；

【导师】 杨丽原；

【作者基本信息】 济南大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 南四湖是我国十大淡水湖之一,是山东省重要的水源地,同时也是南水北调东线工程的主要调蓄枢纽区。自二十世纪八十年代以来,南四湖湖泊水质严重恶化,这与众多的入湖河流遭受严重污染有着密不可分的关系。因此,了解入湖河流的污染程度,评价入湖河流的水质现状,并对未来水质做出合理预测,对于南四湖流域水体污染治理有一定的指导意义。本文结合实际情况,选取了部分主要入湖河流对南四湖入湖河流水质状况进行了分析,对其进行水质综合评价和富营养化程度评价,并利用灰色预测模型,以东鱼河为例对未来三年水质做出预测。主要内容如下:(1)根据南四湖入湖河流的水质监测结果,利用综合水质标识指数法,对入湖河流监测断面进行单因子评价和综合水质评价。结果表明,综合水质总体上逐年改善,城郭河、老运河、光府河污染严重,东鱼河、泗河水质较好。(2)对入湖河流富营养化指标进行评价。分析结果表明,光府河、城郭河、洙赵新河富营养化较严重,泗河、东鱼河营养状态相对较好。(3)结合南四湖入湖河流水质监测数据,选用基于灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)预测模型及改进模型,对东鱼河主要监测指标浓度做出了预测,具有一定的理论指导价值。(4)在对南四湖入湖河流水质评价和预测的基础上,分析了南四湖流域污染的原因,并针对性地提出了流域治理措施,如:入湖河流污染控制、面源污染治理、生态系统功能恢复、管理条例制定等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nansihu Lake is an important water source in Shandong Province, and it is also a major regulation and storage hub of South to North Water Transfer Project. Since the 1980’s, water quality of Nansihu Lake has been gradually deteriorated, which has a close relationship to the pollution of a large number inflow rivers. Therefore, understanding the pollution degree and water quality status of inflow rivers, and making a reasonable prediction of future water quality have some significance for water pollution treatment of Nansihu Lake.In this paper, according to actual situation, some of the major inflow rivers were selected to make an analysis of water quality status. Water quality and eutrophication were evaluated, and water quality of the next three years of Dongyu River were predicted. The content of this paper follows:(1) According to water quality monitoring results of inflow rivers, this paper selected comprehensive water quality identification index to make single factor evaluation and comprehensive water quality evaluation of monitoring sections, and evaluation results were analyzed. It showed that the comprehensive water quality improved year by year on the whole, pollution of Chengguo River, Laoyun River and Guangfu River was serious, and quality of Dongyu River and Si River was better.(2) According to characteristics of eutrophication, this paper evaluated eutrophication of inflow rivers. The result showed that Guangfu River, Chengguo River and Zhuzhaoxin River were in the state of eutrophication, nutritional status of Si River and Dongyu River were in the better state.(3) Combined with water quality monitoring datas, this paper selected GM (1,1) model based on grey theory and its improved model to make a reasonable prediction of monitoring indicators of Dongyu River. This prediction had a certain theoretical value.(4) Based on water quality evaluation and prediction of inflow rivers of Nansihu Lake, pollution reasons and control countermeasures for Nansihu Lake basin were presented in this paper such as governance of inflow rivers, strengthening non-point source pollution control, the full restoration of ecosystem functions and formulation of regulations.更多还原