【作者】 冯献；

【导师】 李宁辉；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的高速增长,工业的重化特征使得能源供需关系日趋紧张,环境压力日益加大,催生了生物燃料产业蓬勃发展。然而,以高耗粮为主要特征的第一代生物燃料对我国粮食安全形成了巨大的隐患,通过粮价的蝴蝶效应,直接威胁到贫困居民的基本生活。因此,当前发展生物燃料必须遵循原料的“非粮”路线。木薯,“耐干旱,耐贫瘠,耐高温,单产高”,是我国第六大热带作物。作为重要的淀粉作物,木薯在生物燃料中扮演着重要的角色,成为第一代生物燃料向第二代生物燃料过渡的重要原料之一。本论文通过对相关文献研习、历史数据分析、行业发展研究以及农户实地调研,对生物质能发展的必然性、木薯在生物燃料中的地位、木薯生物燃料产业的影响及其发展前景进行了定性和定量的分析,得出了研究结论。首先,从化石资源存量出发,提出了生物燃料在石油危机背景中产生的必然性。其次,从资源比较优势角度出发,分析了木薯在生物燃料中的战略地位。研究表明,在第一代生物燃料向第二代过渡中,较其他生物燃料原料而言,木薯在能源产出、单位土地种植成本、潜在生物燃料产能、土地资源、生物燃料技术等方面具有比较优势。木薯生物燃料在生物液态燃料中的优势地位明显,对促进我国生物燃料产业发展有着积极的推动作用。第三,运用盈亏平衡分析了影响木薯生物燃料项目投资的不确定性因素,并通过汽油价格与石油价格的相关关系,测算了有无政府补贴情景下木薯生物燃料盈亏平衡点上木薯与石油的损益平衡价,同时预测了2010~2020年木薯燃料乙醇的政策成本。研究表明,2010~2014年,木薯燃料乙醇收益处于亏损区,需要进行政府补贴才能保证5%利润率;2015~2020年,在保证其他因素不变下,由于石油价格的持续上涨,木薯生物燃料具有政策可行性。第四,基于农户层面,构建农户家庭经营纯收入影响模型和木薯成本-收益函数。研究表明,在同样资源禀赋下,产业化经营比分散经营收入高,化肥、种子是木薯产出的重要投入要素,良种良法的推广有利于木薯产量的提高。第五,运用SWOT方法,对我国木薯生物燃料产业的发展进行战略规划。研究表明,在短时期内,木薯生物燃料产业对农户、企业以及区域经济发展有着积极的作用,应采取推进型战略。然而,从长期来看,由于第二代生物燃料应用技术的提高以及土地资源的有限性,使得木薯生物燃料产业将不具有竞争优势,应当考虑防御型战略,将木薯原料转向淀粉、酒精等传统加工产业。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economical development in China, heavy chemical industry-led model of economic development which brought out nervous relation between supply and demand of energy and growing pressure on environment and resources gave birth to the biofuel industry development. However, the first generation of biofuel which is used grain as feedstock led to the food insecurity. Meanwhile, the butterfly effect of grain effect threatens the basic life of poor people. Therefore, the current development of biofuel should follow the non-grain route. Cassava is famous as“granary of under ground”,“King of starch”. It can adapt to the drought, high temperature climate and poor soil. It is China’s sixth largest tropical crops. As an important starchy crop, cassava plays an important role on the biofuel industry. It became one of the most important raw materials on the transition from first-generation bio-fuels to the second-generation.After study on related literature, historical data analysis, industry research and farmer investigation, this paper analyzed the necessity for the development of biomass energy, cassava status in the bio-fuel industry, cassava biofuel effects and its development prospects with qualitatively and quantitative methods, then obtained research results.Firstly, from the angle of fossil resources, this paper analyzed the inevitability of biofuel on the background of oil crisis.Secondly, from the perspective of comparative advantages of resources, this paper analyzed the strategic position of cassava in biofuel industry. Compare to the other energy crops, results showed that in the transition from the first generation biofuel to the second generation, cassava had comparative advantage in the energy output, cost per unit of land cultivated, the potential of biofuel production, land resources, technology, etc. The position of cassava biofuel was obvious in the bio-liquid fuel, and it had a positive role in promoting on the development of bio-fuel industry.Thirdly, break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis was used in this paper to analyze the impact of the cassava biofuel investment project. After calculated the correlation between gasoline prices and oil prices, this paper measured two scenario (non government subsidy and 1373 RMB/t subsidy) breakeven prices of cassava bio-fuel and oil. And then forecasted the cassava fuel ethanol policy cost from 2010 to 2020. Studies show that from 2010 to 2014, cassava fuel ethanol will be in the red zone benefits which need government subsidies to ensure 5% profit margin while from 2015 to 2020, in the assumption of other factors constant, as the oil prices continued to rise which is rather faster than the cassava price, cassava bio-fuel have feasibility in the policy.Fourth, based on household level, this paper constructed a model that explained the rural households’net income and an input-output function of cassava. The results showed that under the same resource endowment, those who took part in the industry management can obtain higher income than those who decentralized management. It also showed that those who invested more planting area, more fertilizers, and more seeds can acquire higher cassava output. What’s more, those where promoted the varieties good laws can improve the cassava production. Fifth, using SWOT method, this paper analyzed the prospects of cassava bio-fuel industry development. The results showed that in the short term, promoting strategy should be adopted for the cassava bio-fuel industry was good for the farmers, enterprises and regional economic development. However, in the long run, facing the threaten of the second-generation biofuel and the limited land resources, cassava bio-fuel industry will not have a competitive advantage, it should consider the WT rategy, and cassava should be used in the cassava starch industry and alcohol processing industry .更多还原