【作者】 陈金华；

【导师】 杨再强；

【作者基本信息】 南京信息工程大学 ， 应用气象学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 安徽省地处南北气候过渡地带,冷暖空气经常在此交汇活动,降水不确定性增加,因此旱涝灾害时有发生,给当地农业生产造成重大损失。旱涝灾害监测预测一直是气象部门重点关注的业务之一。近年来,安徽省气象部门先后建立了安徽省土壤墒情普查网、自动土壤水分观测网,初步开展了农业旱涝监测预测业务。但当前农业旱涝服务业务自动化水平相对较低,相关数据应用分析往往滞后。本文研发了一套安徽省农业旱涝监测预测业务系统,实现了旱涝监测方面各类资料整理与规范化存储,并结合农业旱涝指标研究,实现了农业旱涝监测预测实时分析与应用,提升了安徽省旱涝防灾监测业务水平。本文主要研究成果如下1)基于安徽省农业气候特征,改进了相对湿润度指数,建立了基于累积湿润度指数的农业干旱监测预测模型与指标；分季节建立了安徽省土壤水分统计预测模型。2)基于监测原始数据、土壤水分综合数据库、监测预测初级产品、监测预测用户产品4个级别数据文件逐级转换的农业旱涝监测预测业务流程,研发了安徽省农业旱涝监测预测业务系统,依次实现了多源土壤水分监测数据的实时自动采集、规范化存储,土壤水分统计预测,累积湿润度指数监测预测,及各类农业旱涝监测预测产品的处理与分析。3)系统中定义的初级产品数据格式,综合考虑了数据的时间与空间信息,通过指定不同要素空间展示时所选的色标文件,实现模型指标信息动态加载与管理。4)系统根据农业气象业务需求,提供多样化产品,分别以表格、线柱图、空间分布图等样式实现了数据的显示与输出,动态反映农业旱涝监测预测信息时空变化。5)系统首次应用自动土壤水分观测资料进行降水渗透深度、渗透量估算。该系统的业务化运行,缩短了从数据收集到业务服务的时间周期,成功应用于安徽省农业旱涝防灾减灾服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 Anhui Province is located in the north-south climatic transition zone, with Cold and warm air often interacting there actively, precipitation increasing uncertainly, and droughts and floods occurring frequently. The disasters have brought about significant loss to local agricultural production. Monitoring and forecasting drought and waterlogging has been one focus of meteorological department. In recent years, the meteorological department of Anhui Province has established soil moisture survey network, automatic soil moisture monitoring network, and agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting service has initially carried out. However, the current automatic level of agricultural drought and flood service is relatively low, applied analysis of relevant data often lags behind. This paper developed an agricultural drought and flood monitoring and forecasting business system in Anhui Province, to achieve all kinds of data compilation and standardization storage in drought and flood monitoring, and combined with indicators of agricultural drought and flood, to achieve real-time analysis and application of agricultural drought and flood monitoring and forecasting, also enhance the business level of drought and flood prevention and monitoring in Anhui Province.The results in this paper are as follows:1) Based on agro-climatic characteristics of Anhui Province, the relative moisture index was improved, the agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting model and indicator which based on cumulative moisture index were established, and soil moisture statistical forecasting model of Anhui Province was established seasonally.2) Based on 4-level data files step by step conversion, the agricultural drought and flood monitoring and forecasting business was simplified, and agricultural drought and flood monitoring and forecasting business system of Anhui Province was researched and developed. And real-time automatic collection, standardized storage of multi-source soil moisture monitoring data, soil moisture statistical forecasting, and accumulated humidity index monitoring and forecasting, and processing and analysis of various agricultural droughts and flood monitoring and forecasting products were achieved.3) Primary products data format as defined in the system, which considered comprehensively the space and time information of data, model indicator information dynamic loading and management were achieved by specifying color files that displayed on different elements space. 4) According to agricultural meteorological business needs, diversified products were provided, data display and output were achieved respectively with such styles:sheet, line column chart, spatial distribution etc., which reflected the Spatial and temporal changes of agricultural drought and flood monitoring and forecasting information dynamically.5) The automatic soil moisture observation data were first applied to estimate penetration depth, infiltration capacity of precipitation. Operation of the system shortened the time period from data collected to business service, successfully applied to agricultural drought and flood prevention and mitigation services in Anhui Province.更多还原