【作者】 高秋杰；

【导师】 田明华；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球经济发展和人口剧增,水资源已逐渐成为影响世界发展的重要战略要素之一。1993年,由英国伦敦大学Tony Allan教授提出并发展的虚拟水理论,为全球水资源平衡、解决缺水国家水资源短缺问题开辟了新途径,引起了相关领域诸多学者和专家的广泛关注,并且关于虚拟水理论、虚拟水贸易以及虚拟水战略的研究也日益完善。我国是全球13个人均水资源量最贫乏的国家之一,因此研究虚拟水理论和贸易、实施虚拟水战略对解决我国严重的缺水问题和促进我国国民经济的全面发展具有重要意义。国内外农产品领域的虚拟水相关研究比较完善,农产品虚拟水量化研究也有比较完备的模型,但是,林产品作为特殊的水密集型产品,相关领域的虚拟水量化以及虚拟水贸易却鲜有研究。因此,本文从虚拟水理论及其相关概念、理论基础出发,对国内外诸多学者在虚拟水方面的研究进行归纳综述,并借鉴农业领域虚拟水研究的方法模型,提出林业领域虚拟水量化方法,估算出森林以及主要木质林产品的虚拟水含量。在此基础上,结合2000～2009年我国主要木质林产品进出口贸易量,得出2000～2009年我国主要木质林产品虚拟水贸易量,确定虚拟水贸易在我国林产品贸易中的地位,并对相关结果予以解释分析。最后,根据比较优势理论,结合分析结果,提出指导我国未来林产品贸易的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the global economic development and soaring population, water resources have been becoming one of the significant strategic factors affecting world advance. In 1993, Tony Allan, a professor in London University, put forward and expanded the "virtual water" theory. This theory has broke a new way for settling global water balance and problems on lack of water resources in some countries. The researches of virtual water theory, virtual water trade and virtual water strategy have been also increasingly perfect. We are one of the thirteen poorest countries of per capita water resources. Consequently it is important for solving our water resources problems and improving the development of our national economy to study virtual water trade theory and implementing virtual water strategy. The researches on agricultural products virtual water have been improved. The quantization of agricultural products virtual water content has a complete model. However, forest products as a water-intensive product have few study of virtual water quantization. So this article, from virtual water theory, related concepts and academic basis, sums up a lot of researches made by foreign and domestic experts. It brings up quantizing methods of forest products taking examples from agricultural products, and astimates virtual water contents in forest and main timber forest products. Then combined with main forest products export and import trade volume in China from 2000 to 2009, it concludes virtual water trade volume of main forest products export and import in China, and explains the related conclusions. Finally, according to the theory of comparative advantage and combining with positive conclusion, it gives countermeasures and suggestions to direct our future forest products trade.更多还原