【作者】 喻婷；

【导师】 陈章喜；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代末,内地城市开始借鉴香港房地产市场“卖楼花”之经验,引进商品房预售制度。此后十余年,预售制度对中国内地房地产业发展起到了重要的推动作用：一方面帮助开发商提高资金使用效率、降低开发成本,另一方面也满足了消费者对商品房的需求。然而,由于其自身存在的一些缺陷以及管理机制的问题,近年来,预售制度也遭遇到大量的质疑和指责。本文从经济学视角对中国内地商品房预售制度实施的经济效应进行了较为全面的分析：首先,以新制度经济学的原理为分析工具,归纳商品房预售制度的制度属性。其次,基于正、负经济效应的角度对预售制度在内地的实践进行规范性分析,同时,通过数据包络分析法(DEA)和广义自回归条件异方差模型(GARCH Model)对预售制度运行的经济效应进行实证分析。再次,审视当前预售制度在世界范围内运行的基本情况,从预售资格、定金比率、监管办法等方面进行比较,归纳总结出内地预售制改革值得借鉴的外部经验。在前三个主要部分的基础上,就内地商品房预售制度的未来发展提出相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Learning from the experience of uncompleted real estate business model in Hong Kong real estate, many cities in China’s mainland brought in the pre-sales housing system in the late 1980s. In the following decades, the pre-sales housing system had played an important role in the development of real estate in China. On one hand, the pre-sales housing system helped the real estate developers enhance their capital-using efficiency and reduce the costs of real estate development. On the other hand, the pre-sales housing system also satisfied the consumers’need for commercial residential buildings. However, because of its inner defects management mechanism, the pre-sales system has been confronted by the public’s doubt and denunciation in recent years.From the economic perspective, this paper does a comprehensive research on economic effects of the pre-sales system’s implementation in China’s commercial residential buildings in four steps:Firstly, on the basis of systematic analysis of related literatures on the pre-sales system in commercial residential buildings, this paper uses new institutional economics theories as an analytic tool to ascertain and summarize the pre-sales system’s implementary premises in real estate market. Secondly, based on the review of the historical development of the pre-sales system in China’s commercial residential buildings, this paper also makes a normative analysis on the positive and negative effects of the pre-sales system’s implementary process in China. On the meanwhile, it tries to make an empirical analysis on the economic effects of pre-sales system by Data Envelopment Analysis and GARCH model. Thirdly, through exploring the pre-sales system’s worldwide implementation performance, this paper also makes a comparison of pre-sales qualifications, down payment ratio and regulations. Finally, according to the previous theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward related policies and suggestions for the further development of the pre-sales housing system in China.更多还原