【作者】 任义方；

【导师】 王春乙； 赵艳霞；

【作者基本信息】 中国气象科学研究院 ， 气象学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 中国是世界上遭受自然灾害最严重的国家之一,而气象灾害的损失占灾害损失的近70%。尽管国家通过出台一系列有关金融改革和保险改革的政策,鼓励国内外保险公司参与防灾减灾,来尽快实现灾害保险市场化,但目前我国自然灾害保险赔偿只占自然灾害总损失3%左右,因此加快自然灾害保险相关研究势在必行。本研究选择河南省的主要作物冬小麦作为研究对象,分别用历史农业统计资料、作物生长及灾情历史记录和气象资料,在分发育阶段建立河南冬小麦干旱指数的基础上,采用保险风险分散理论进行干旱发生规律的时空分析,结合自然灾害风险和保险的相关理论和方法,以县为单位,对冬小麦干旱风险进行分析和区划,并针对气象指数保险和政策性保险区划的结果进行对比分析研究,在此基础上采用经验费率法和单产分布模型法厘定保险费率,最后设计了农业气象指数保险产品。得到的初步结论如下:1、在相对湿润度指数的基础上,考虑冬小麦本身的生物学特性和不同发育阶段对水分的敏感性,以及底墒对产量的影响,构建了适于河南省冬小麦的干旱指数,对作物干旱有较好的指示作用。2、河南冬小麦全生育期和关键发育阶段干旱的空间分布主要为北重南轻型。全生育期和多数发育阶段干旱指数EOF分析的时间系数序列总体上呈现下降又缓慢上升的趋势。EOF分析第一模态主要呈现准6年的周期变化规律,此外还有10年左右的低频振荡和2年左右的高频振荡。3、基于风险分析原理,通过干旱风险度、产量风险指数和抗灾性能指数3个风险评估指标的聚类分析,得到河南省冬小麦干旱的区划结果:高风险区和中高风险区主要分布在河南西北和北部各县;中风险等级区主要分布在河南省南部各县;中低风险区和低风险区主要分布在河南中部各县。4、农业保险风险区划不同于普通风险区划,针对不同目的的保险区划应采用不同的区划指标。气象指数保险仅考虑气象要素和产量之间的关系,而对于政策性保险来说,是在一定的基本预防和补救措施以及社会经济水平下,考虑多种影响因子对产量的作用。两者的区划结果有显著不同。5、经验费率法的关键是对收支平衡年份的确定。在周期为6年的情况下厘定的平均费率(P1_ave)和最大费率(P1_max)的空间分布趋势与多年情况(N=36)确定的经验费率(P1)大体一致,大值比较集中地分布在豫西北地区。单产分布模型法厘定费率的关键是最佳单产分布模型的确定。最佳拟合模型费率值(P2)在豫西北部各县要明显高于豫东南各县。由经验费率法和单产分布模型法所厘定的各县费率值的相对大小与分布模型的选择有一定关系。6、通过冬小麦干旱指数与减产率的回归分析,确定全生育期和关键发育阶段干旱指数偏离触发值的程度与减产率的关系,设计保险责任表,从而求算赔偿金额。结合区域产量指数保险和气象指数保险思路设计的气象指数保险费率要明显大于区域产量保险费率,豫北为高值区,豫南为低值区。并在此基础上利用气象指数保险风险区划的结果对费率进行修正,所厘定综合费率值的空间分布发生一定变化。豫北的高值区明显向豫西方向扩展,中低值区的范围有向豫北扩展的趋势,其他区域除个别县有较小变动外,其空间布局基本保持不变。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of the countries in the world, which has being suffered the most serious natural disasters. The loss caused by meteorological disaster occupies nearly 70% of those disaster loses. Although the country encouraged domestic and foreign insurance companies to participate in the task of preventing and reducing disasters through releasing a series of related financial and insurance reform policies, in order to achieve the disaster insurance marketization, at present disaster insurance indemnities of our country only occupies about 3% of the natural disaster total losses. Therefore, it is imperative to speed up the study of natural disaster insurance. This paper taking Henan Province’s staple crop winter wheat as the study object, using the historical agricultural statistics materials, the historic record of crops growth and disaster situations, and the climatic data, based on the construction of Henan winter wheat drought index by separating the growth stages, considering the insurance risk dispersion theory, the rules of drought happened in space and time scale were analysed. And then, combining correlated theories and methods on natural disaster risk and insurance, winter wheat drought risks analysis and regionalization, as well as weather index insurance regionalization and policy-related insurance regionalization were carried out in winter wheat drought at county level. Based on that, premium rates were arranged by using the method of experienced premium rate and the per unit area yield distribution model. Meanwhile, the operable production of agricultural weather index insurance and the insurance premium rates were explored. The main results in the article would be presented as following:1. The drought index, based on the relative wet index, , considering winter wheat’s biology characteristic and its sensitivities in different growth stages, as well as the influence of the precipitation before sowing, were constructed, which was suitable for the Henan Province winter wheat and had a good instruction of crop drought.2. The predominant spatial distribution type of Henan winter wheat in the entire growth stage and essential growth stages was south-north distribute patten, totally, presenting the north dry for the main time trend. EOF analysis’s time sequence assumed the rise-drop-slow rise tendency. The principal component cycle of EOF analysis’first modality mainly concentrated on the intermediate frequency vibration of 6 years; in addition, there were also low frequency oscillation of 10 years and high frequency oscillation of 2 years.3. Based on the principle of risk analysis, three risk assessment indexes were used, which include the drought risk, output risk index and disaster resisting index, through cluster analysis method, Henan winter wheat drought regionalization were carried out. The high risk region and moderate-high risk region mainly distributed in the counties located in northweat Henan. The moderate risk area mainly distributed in the counties located in south Henan. The moderate-low region and low region mainly distributed in the counties located in the middle of Henan.4. The agricultural insurance risk regionalization was different from the ordinary risk regionalization and different regionalization index and methods should be used in view of the different goal of insurance regionalization. Meteorological index insurance only considered the relationship between meteorological elements and outputs, while regarding the policy insurance, under certain condition of prevention and remedial treatment as well as the social economical level, influences of many kinds of factors would be taken into consideration. The regionalization results of these two methods were significantly different.5. In the method of experienced premium rate the key was to decide the years when the revenues and expenditures are balanced. The spatial distribution tendency of average and maximum premium rate arranged under the situation of six-year cycle was similar with the premium rate arranged under the situation of multi-year average situation (N=36), which great value intently distributed in the northwest of Henan Province. When using the method of per unit area yield distribution mode arranged the premium rate, the key is choosing the best per unit area yield distribution model. The premium rates, arranged by this method, in the northwest of Henan Province are much higher than that in the southeast. The differences of the premium rate arranged by the method of experienced premium rate and per unit area yield distribution mode were mainly depend on the chosen best distribution mode.6. Through the regression analysis of drought index and reduce production rate, the relationship between the deviation degree the drought index from trigger value and reduction percentage in the whole growth stage and essential growth stages, from which the insurance liability form were designed and indemnity were calculated. In combination with the theory of regional production index insurance and meteorological index insurance, the comprehensive index premium rate of winter wheat drought, which showed that high value areas mainly distributed in the north of Henan, while low value areas mainly distributed in the south of Henan. The premium rate of weather index insurance is distinctly higher than that of regional production insurance. Based on that, the premium rates were revised by the result of the weather index insurance risk regionalization. The spatial distribution of revised premium rate had certain changes that the high value area extended visibly towards the west of Henan Province, while the medium-low value area extended towards the north of Henan Province. Except few counties with minor changes, the special distribution of other value areas remained the same.更多还原