【作者】 何元；

【导师】 段豫川；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 企业管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以上市公司的资本运营和经营决策为背景,以行为经济学为理论前提,对在不同股权依赖度下,投资者非理性行为对公司决策产生的影响进行研究。通过验证投资者行为对企业决策的影响大小是否会因为股权依赖度的不同,而表现出显著差异；以及在这种差异明显存在的情况下,进一步分析这类影响的传导方向和强弱变化趋势。最终为上市公司管理者做出较优决策提供理论支持,以促进公司长期发展。本文除文献综述外共分为五章,分别介绍了研究背景和内容、研究借鉴的理论、接着对选取的IT类上市公司07-09年268个样本进行了实证分析。在实证过程中,首先用因子分析法对样本中与股权依赖度有关的指标进行排序,并据此计算排列出各样本的股权依赖程度；接着按股权依赖度高低将样本均分为五组,用样本变量指标中的账面市值比与长期投资、短期投资、现金流、资本收益率做相关性分析,然后按年份将样本分为三组分别就股价与对外投资、现金流和资本收益率做相关分析；分析投资者行为与公司决策的关系；最终得出实证研究结论：公司股权依赖程度越高,企业的长期投资决策对股价变化的敏感性越强,账面市值比对长期投资的影响显著为正；投资者行为对短期投资决策的影响显著为负；市场偏好会随着投资者的非理性行为发展逆转；账面市值比对资本收益率的影响显著为负,即投资者偏好提高效率提升决策而不是对外投资决策。本文研究的结论是：(1)根据股权依赖度的不同,投资者行为对公司决策有显著的影响,且影响程度存在明显差异。股权依赖度越高,投资者行为对公司决策的影响程度越强。(2)根据股权依赖度的不同,股权依赖度度越低,投资者行为对公司决策的影响程度越弱。(3)投资者的偏好会发生偏好逆转,由此也会对公司的经营决策产生影响。本文的建议是：(1)管理者应抓住资本市场的市场时机进行投融资。(2)管理者可通过测量公司的股权依赖程度发现市场偏好,以利于做出有效决策。(3)管理者也可以尝试通过干预投资者偏好,及时调整公司的总体战略,保证公司的长期发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, research starts in the background of listed companies’capital operation and management, it takes Behavioral Economics’view as the premise, to study how the investors’ irrational behavior to interrupt the company policies in the different equity dependence, and verify whether this effect will be significant; if it’s exist, we need to further analysis the trend and direction. Finally, it provides theoretical support to help the managers to make the optimum decision to promote long-term development.This paper contains 5 parts besides an introduction. It contains the description of background knowledge and some relative theories, then it takes the financial of data released by IT firms as samples which includes 268 episodes from the year 2007 to 2009. In the positive analysis, first, it uses factor analysis to rank these equity dependent firms and calculates the equity dependence of the sample. After that it divides the samples into five equal groups. It follows that to run correlation analysis including stock price (book to market) against long term investment, short term investment, cash flow and leverage. Then it analyzes in the same way except dividing the samples into 3 parts by year. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the investors’irrational behavior how to interrupt the company policies. At last it gets the conclusion.The conclusion of this paper is:Investors’behavior has an impact related to equity dependence’s degree on a firm’s policy. A firm more likely to be dependent whose long term investment policy would be more sensitive to stock price, and book to market (as a symbol of investors’ irrationality) attaches positive weight to long term investment. Book to market attaches negative weight to short term investment. The market’s preference would be reversed by the investors’ irrationality. Book to market attaches negative weight to Rate of return on capital. Finally, this paper gives some advices that:Managers would discover the market’s preference and take the market timing to invest and financing. Also, managers may try to regulate the market’s preference to help the fulfillment of firm strategy.更多还原