【作者】 吴坎坷；

【导师】 付玉慧；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 回顾海上运输安全的历史,每次海上运输安全政策的重大改变都是吸取海上事故的教训产生的。特别是客船,由于客船人员众多,疏散空间狭窄,事故发生地一般在海上等原因,客船的人员安全隐患更为明显,一旦发生事故将可能危及数百甚至上千人的生命。因此,研究客船人员安全疏散问题具有切实的意义。在大部分的疏散场景中,楼梯都是决定疏散时间长短的主要因素。由于它的实际尺寸往往比建筑物的其他部分要小,再加上会显著降低步行速度的原因,楼梯通常被认为疏散过程中的瓶颈。然而,目前相当一部分有关疏散的研究都是基于整体来研究的,设定的场景往往是某个建筑物,船舶或者是地铁等自成系统的平面区域,对于起到连接多个平面区域的通道——楼梯这一重要而特殊的结构中的疏散问题则研究得很少,而有关客船楼梯疏散的研究就更少了。因此,对客船楼梯处人员疏散的研究具有重要的现实意义。本论文以多格子模型为基础,结合概率论中有关区间估计的理论知识,建立了正浮状态下客船楼梯处人员疏散多格子模型。通过MATLAB对相关数据的处理,得到了通过特定楼梯时疏散时间与累积疏散人数的关系图,以及疏散时间和D值之间的关系图。通过得到的两个关系图来估计疏散人数和疏散时间的关系,以及D值对疏散时间的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Reviewing the history of maritime transport safety, every significant change of the maritime transport security policy is based on the lesson of the accidents at sea, especially for the passenger ships. Owing to the characteristics of itself, such as there is limited evacuation space, many people are concerned, and the accident occurred at sea in general, the threaten of the safety for the personnel on the passenger ship is distinct. Once the accident happened, it would threaten hundreds or even thousands of lives. Therefore, the study for passenger evacuation has practical significance.In most of the evacuation scenario, the stairs are the main factors that determine the evacuate time. Because its physical size is often smaller than the rest of the building, coupled with it will significantly reduce the walking speed, the staircase is usually considered the bottleneck in the evacuation process. However, a considerable part of the current research related to evacuation is based on the whole set of scenes, just like a building, subway or ship that form the region as a system, for the important and special staircase that connecting multiple plane regions, there is few research on the evacuation, Particularly with the research regard to passenger ships. Therefore, the evacuation study of stairs on passenger ships is very important.This thesis is based on the multi-grid model, combined with probability theory in the theoretical knowledge of the relevant interval estimation, and establish a lattice model which is about the evacuation of stairs on passenger ships that on the state of floating.The relevant data is disposed through the MATLAB, then obtained the relation schema about the cumulative number of evacuee and the time it takes along the particular stair. The relation schema between the evacuation time and D values is also raised. According to the two relation schema, a further research about the number of evacuee and the time it takes is put forward, then analysis the influence of the value of D to the time.更多还原