【作者】 王震；

【导师】 谭忠富；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 项目管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 为满足电力市场发展的需求,县级供电企业正经历着大范围的市场化改革改革前县级供电企业的经营活动在很大程度上受当地政府的支配,而改革后县级供电企将成为国家电网公司控股的一个分公司,直接进入市场,接受规范的管理。这种改革一方面为县级供电企业的发展注入了市场元素,是适应社会发展的重要体现。但与此同时也必须看到,这种改革对县级供电企业的冲击也是不小的。在当前农村电网各方面条件都比较差的情况下,县级供电企业为了开拓农村电力市场,首先要做的就是进行大范围的农网改造,这部分投资是不小的,这将使得县级供电企也面临着巨大的投资风险。此外,县级供电企业面临的售电环境主要是不成熟的农村电力市场,在农村电力市场上存在着大量的不确定性因素,因此,县级供电企业在经营中将会面临着各种各样的风险因素。在国家电网公司大力推进全面风险管理的要求下,县级供电企业非常有必要开展风险管理。本文首先介绍了县级供电企业经营风险以及评估的一般理论,然后结合县级供电企业的特点对县级供电企业的经营风险管理进行了研究,给出了相应的风险因素,建立了县级供电企业经营风险的评价指标体系,并利用模糊综合层次分析评价法对高密市供电局的经营风险为例进行了实证分析,根据评价结果给出高密市供电局经营风险管理的相关建议,为县级供电企业的风险管理提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to meet the development needs of the electricity market, the county power companies are experiencing a wide range of market-oriented reforms. The business activities of the pre-reform country power conmpanies were dominated by the local government, but these will change to be controlled by the National Grid company after reform. They will enter the market directly and receive standard management. Such reforms on the one hand wil bring the county power enterprises enter into the development of market elements, and also are an important manifestation of social development. But it must be noted that these reforms will also brings much more attacks for the county power companies.At present, the current conditions of the rural power grid are very poor, so the county power enterprises must carry out a wide range of rural power grids in order to develop rural electricity market, which will cost a lot of money. In addition, the electricity sales environment of the county power enterprises primarily is the immature rural electricity market in the rural electricity market, which are also uncertain. Thus the power enterprises operating in the county will be faced with various kinds of risk factors. Guided by the comprehensive risk management requirements of State Grid Corporation, the county power enterprises should take risk management. This paper describes the county power business risk and the general theory on risk evaluation. Combined with the characteristics of county power enterprises operation, the corresponding risk factors are analyzed firstly, the risk evaluation index system is also established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used and combined the actual case of Gaomi city, the suggestion on the risk management of countries’electric company is provided, which also provided guidance for the actual operation.更多还原