【作者】 张菁菁；

【导师】 申金升；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 与传统燃油汽车相比,电动汽车可以减少车辆尾气排放、缓解机动车对石油资源的过度依赖,是解决当前能源紧张和环境污染问题的一个重要手段。随着电动汽车技术的日臻成熟,其产业化、商业化的发展时代悄然来临。但同时也应看到,到目前为止,电动汽车的发展仍受到多方面因素的影响。其中,充电设施建设的滞后便是制约电动汽车发展的主要原因之一。充电设施既是影响电动汽车使用灵活性的重要因素,同时也是调控电动汽车经济性的重要杠杆,对电动汽车的产业化发展具有重要作用。在电动汽车充电设施建设和发展过程中,政府、充电设施运营商、消费者分别扮演着不同的角色,发挥着各自不同的作用。三者之间相互影响,相互作用。本文运用博弈的方法,通过建立政府、充电设施运营商、消费者两两之间的博弈模型,研究分析三者在推动充电设施建设和发展过程中的动力因素。研究发现,政府的支持力度与充电电价是影响三者参与充电设施建设与发展积极性的主要因素。由此,本文在对三者利益进一步分析的基础之上,探讨了政府支持力度与充电电价的定价模型。首先,从政府与充电设施运营商的角度,建立了二者之间关于充电电价及政府支持度的博弈函数模型；然后,运用Mixed logit模型建立了基于充电电价的电动汽车新增量预测函数,将消费者行为引入到政府与充电设施运营商的博弈模型中；最后,通过探讨其他相关参数的函数关系确立了涉及政府、充电设施运营商、消费者三方利益的最终博弈模型。之后,本文分别从合作博弈与非合作博弈两种角度探讨了模型的求解方法,并通过实例进一步验证了定价模型的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Comprised by traditional oil-fuel vehicle (FV),Development of electric vehicle (EV) which can decrease emission of tail gas and over-using of oil, is an important means of solving the current energy and environment problem.With development of EV technology, the state of Ev commercialization is coming. But the development of EV industry is still restricted by multi-factors, one of which is the development of EV charging facility. EV charging facility can not only affect the flexibility of using EV, but also regulate the Economical efficiency of using EV.Government, EV charging facility operation business and customers play different parts in the course of construction and development of EV charging facility. Each of the three parts influences the two others. In this paper, models based on Game Theory about payout of Government, EV charging facility operation business and customers are established to analyse the possibilities of them taking part in the development of EV charging facility. Through the model, it is coneluded that support from government and charge price are the two of most important effect factors.Model of support from government and charge price is built by further analysis of the three part’s interests. The course is as follows:First, a preliminary model of support from government and charge price is built based on gaming theory from the angle of government and EV charging facility operation business. Second, functions of numbers of EV and charging price is built by using Mixed Logit model, which can bring the customers’interest into the model built in the first step. Then analyze the relationship between other unknown variables and knowm or basic unknown and establish the relevant functions. Finaly, all the relevant functions are substituted in the model built in the first step. Then the model is completed.Then, the solving method for the model using both cooperative and non-cooperativ game theory is given. At last, the Feasibility of the model is verifie through an actual example in this paper.更多还原