【作者】 邢锐；

【导师】 杨庆芳；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着国民经济飞速发展,我国交通量和汽车保有量不断增加,交通拥堵以及交通事故现象日益严重,造成大量的资源浪费,已经严重影响到人们正常的工作、生活。交通信息是影响城市路网交通流分布的关键因素。可变信息板(VMS)在先进出行者信息系统(ATIS)中作为一种发布交通诱导信息的的重要方式,能有效的引导出行者路径选择行为,从而解决部分交通问题,由于其高效、便捷、效用广、收益大,已被人们广泛关注,在交通系统中发挥着重要作用。但目前,我国VMS信息系统处于刚起步阶段,VMS技术还不够成熟,效用的发挥也未达到最大化,限制了其对交通流的疏导作用,国外的VMS技术虽已成熟,但国情不同不能直接运用。因此,VMS对出行者路径选择行为影响研究势在必行,其中必然涉及到影响出行者路径选择行为的相关因素分析,本研究提出具体影响因素,先分类再重点分析,具有一定的针对性,有利于更好地制定和优化符合我国交通现状的VMS诱导信息策略,完善交通出行系统,诱导出行者做出最合理的路径选择行为,加强路网交通流合理分配,缓解交通拥堵、避免二次交通事故的发生以及减少不必要的经济损失,本研究也有利于VMS的全面推广,为相关部门提出可行性建议,促进VMS系统逐步完善并能走向成熟。本文主要研究在交通拥堵和交通事故两种事件状态下VMS交通诱导信息对出行者路径选择的影响,首先对国内、国外的研究现状进行概述,提出现存问题,然后对可变信息板(VMS)进行阐述；分析信息下出行路径选择行为机理,尽可能提出影响因素,继而采用SP调查问卷的方式对出行者路径选择进行调查,统计数据,基于调查问卷的方法初步分析出相关影响因素；同时对比Probit和Logistic两个回归模型,择优选取Logistic模型,通过SPSS软件基于此模型逐步筛选出自变量,提炼出对出行者路径选择行为影响权重较大的因素,各变量均在不同程度上影响出行者路径选择行为,构建出行者Logistic路径选择概率模型。最后结合全文结论以及调查问卷中调查对象提出的意见部分,提出相应可行性建议。本文研究结果表明最重要的影响因素有四个,分别是：驾龄、出行者对VMS的关注频率、VMS信息准确性、VMS信息及时性。同时得出,出行者对路网的熟悉程度、可变信息板类型,出行者对延误的忍耐程度也对出行者路径改变有着重要的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of national economy, the traffic flow and the number of automobile in China has constantly increased, which results in the growing number of traffic congestion and traffic incidents, also a lot of waste of resources, seriously affecting people’s work and life. Traffic information is the key factor of affecting the distribution of traffic flow in urban road network. As one of the most important way to distribute traffic routing information in Advanced Travelers Information System(ATIS), Variable Message Sign(VMS) guides drivers’route choice effectively to solve most traffic problems. It is being widespread concerned and playing an important role because of its high efficiency, convenient, widely used and high benefit. But now in China, VMS information system is in primary stage. The technology is not mature enough, and the effectiveness does not reach the maximum, which limits its relief effect. Although the technology has been mature abroad, we can’t make use of it directly for different national conditions. Therefore, it is imperative to study the impact of VMS on drivers’route choice behaviour. It definitely involves the analysis of related influencing factors of drivers’route choice. This paper proposes various of influence factors, then categorize, analyze as focal point with pertinence. This study is helpful to make and optimize VMS guiding information policy to meet our traffic situation, to improve travel system and guide drivers’route choice behavior, strengthen the rational distribution of road network traffic flow, relief traffic congestion, avoid secondary accidents and reducing the unnecessary economic loss, it is also helpful to the overall popularization of VMS, make feasible suggestions to related departments, and promote the improvement and maturation of VMS system.This paper mainly studies the impact of VMS traffic guidance informtion on drivers’ route choice under the two conditions of traffic congestion and traffic accident. First, summarize the current development situation at home and abroad, find the existing problems, then elaborate on the Variable Message Sign(VMS); analyze route choice behavior mechanism under guidance information, bring up corresponding facors as possible. After that, make field investigation on the drivers’route choice by means of SP survey questionnaire, analyze data and primarily analyze the related factors based on the means of questionnaire; and then compare the two regression models of Probit and Logisitic with each other, pick over the Logistic model, and based on this model step sizing independent variable with SPSS software, find out the factor impact on drivers’route choice behavior with higher effect weight. All factors impact on drivers’route choice in different degrees, finally build the drivers’s Logistic route choice probability model. Meanwhile, we propose feasible suggestions according to the conclusion and advices by people who accept the survey. The paper shows there are four most important factors, they are:driving years, drivers’attention-degree on VMS, VMS accuracy, VMS punctuality. The degree of familiarity to road network of driver and the type of variable message signs, drivers’delay tolerance degree are also playing the important roles in travelers’route changing.更多还原