【作者】 连洁；

【导师】 高宏伟；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 统计学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 摘要：高速铁路的建设与国民经济和社会生产力之间有很强的相关性。从经济学的角度来讲,高速铁路是社会和经济发展到一定阶段的产物,和国家的整体经济实力和社会发展水平有关。高昂的成本似乎已经成为了高速铁路不可避免的硬伤,从高速铁路面世以来就背负着这样的成本压力。根据日本和欧洲的高速铁路运营经验可知,最初兴建高速铁路所带来的财务亏损在所难免,因为高速铁路的运营维护成本极高,没有雄厚的财力支持根本无法顺利运营。但我们也应看到,经历过发展的黑暗时期后,日本和欧洲的高速铁路还是走上了盈利的道路。中国这样一个发展中国家究竟有无经济实力支撑高速铁路建设,高速铁路的成本收益如何测算以及如何定位,未来高速铁路将在何时达到正盈利水平?这些问题都可以通过本文进行探讨分析。高速铁路运营会产生相应的成本和收益,本文中也将对成本、收益这些因素与国外高速铁路运营下的成本和收益做对比,从对比中我们可以吸取到一定的借鉴点。当我们在考虑高速铁路的高票价所带来的争议时,其实很少有人会考虑高速铁路较之于飞机和其他交通工具相比所带来的额外福利。例如,高速铁路刺激了沿线经济的发展,减少环境污染和噪声污染等。这些都是隐含在外部性收益中的,同样也是鲜少被人注意的。诸如此类的一些外部性影响往往都被大部分人忽视了如果没有考虑这些隐含因素,单纯的从财务方面看待问题,并下结论说高速铁路是亏损的,似乎也是有所偏差的。在本文中,我们探讨高速铁路的成本收益问题,不再是简单的从财务方面出发,而是以整个社会福利水平为出发点,考察财务问题的同时也考察外部性问题,通过成本收益模型找出影响高铁成本收益的几个主要因素,并研究这几个因素是如何影响成本收益的,这样可以较为综合全面的看待高速铁路这个基础设施存在的价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The construction of high-speed railway has strong connection with national economy and social productive forces. Economically, high-speed railway is a product at stage of economic and society development.High cost has became mechanical damage of high-speed railway. From the experience of Japanese and European high-speed railway, we know that at the initial period losses are inevitable. Because the maintenance cost is high. But we should see that, after the dark period, all of them have gone to the path of profitability. As a developing county, if China have the power to support the construction of high-speed railway? And how to estimate the cost and benefit of high-speed railway? And when will high-speed railway get the its profitable? All of these questions will be analyzed in this paper. At the same time, we also contrast the cost and benefit between our country’s and other countries’ high-speed railway. From the process, we will get some reference points.When we consider about the dispute of high fares of high-speed railway, few people will consider about the fringe benefit brought by high-speed railway, for example, to stimulate the economy along, reduce environmental pollution and noise pollution, and so on. All of them are consist in external return, rarely being noticed ether. Some external effects such as these are often ignored by most people. If you do not consider these hidden factors, a simple look at the issue from a financial aspect and concluded that high-speed rail is a loss, seems also to be biased.In this article, we explore the problem of costs and benefits of high-speed railway is no longer a simple departure from the financial aspects, but in the social welfare level as a starting point, more comprehensive view of existence of high-speed rail the value of this infrastructure.更多还原