【作者】 王小娟；

【导师】 钱大琳；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 交通系统的正常运转是各类生产生活活动开展的保障,而道路交通作为最基本和最直接的交通方式更是发挥了重要的作用。一方面,不断发生的突发事件影响了道路的正常运行,造成了严重的社会危害；另一方面,多数类型突发事件的应急都需要道路交通的应急保障。在此背景下,如何客观的认识和评价道路交通应急能力,进而采取何种手段有效提升应急能力是一项具有重大应用价值的研究课题。本文结合参与的《新疆维吾尔自治区综合交通运输体系规划—道路应急能力规划》项目,开展道路应急能力评价研究。首先,在深入分析当前国内外应急能力评价方法和理念的基础上,研究道路交通系统应对突发事件的流程,提出了道路交通系统应急能力的定义和内涵,提出将应急能力划分为静态能力和动态能力的新思路,并对应急能力的供需机理、基本构成和实现途径进行了探讨。其次,通过分析道路交通应急机理,剖析道路交通应急能力内涵,系统构建了省(自治区)级道路交通应急能力多级评价指标体系,并对各类各级指标给出详细说明和符合实际的计算方法。接着,利用模糊层次分析法(F-AHP)确定指标权重,通过各指标的隶属函数计算完成单因素评判,进而完成模糊综合评判,给出了道路交通应急能力的评价流程。最后,依托本论文的项目背景,以新疆维吾尔自治区道路应急能力作为案例,进行实际评价与应用分析,并根据评价结果提出了有针对性和操作性的应急能力提高建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The normal operation of transport system is carrying out various types of basic production and living activities, and as the most basic and most direct traffic mode, the road traffic system plays an important role. On the one hand, the frequent emergent events affect the normal operation of the traffic network system, lead to a huge negative impact on the society. On the other hand, most types of emergencies need the road. In this context, how to acquaint and evaluate emergency capability of road system, then take effective means to enhance it is a great practical research project, which also have great strategic significance.In this paper, author participated in the "Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Integrated Traffic System Development Plan—the road emergency capability" project to study the road traffic emergency capability evaluation.First of all, based on the deep analysis to domestic and international current methods and concepts about the assessment of emergency capability, according to the real road traffic system, this paper gives the definition and connotation of the road emergency capability.And the study research on the supply and demand mechanism, the basic form and ways to the emergency capability.Based on the research and systems analysis, this paper puts forward the road traffic emergency response capability multi-level evaluation index system, and gives the calculation.Then, using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) to determine the index weight, and put forward the model of road traffic emergency response capability evaluation by the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation theory.Finally, as a case study, the road emergency response capability of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is evaluated with the method proposed in this paper,and according to the evaluation results,the author puts forward a series of feasible operation measures targeted to enhance road emergency capability.更多还原