【作者】 曹国忠；

【导师】 梁秀娟； 孔庆辉；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 水利工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在充分收集研究区各种相关资料的基础上,结合松花江流域西部地区的的实际情况,分析了松花江流域西部地区的降水、蒸发、径流、地下水等水文特性及其时空变化规律和趋势;在此基础上,对水循环过程进行分解并引入水循环绝对强度和相对强度等定量指标,同时进行流域水循环强度分析以及水循环与其影响因子的相关分析,进而揭示气候活动和人类活动在水循环中的作用和影响;通过对流域水资源可利用量的时空分析,水文特性及变化趋势分析以及对粮食生产安全阈值的分析,进一步总结了水循环与粮食生产安全的关系。本文旨在揭示近几十年来气候变化和人类活动影响下松花江流域西部地区重点区域水循环变化规律及存在的问题,为保障东北地区商品粮基地的稳产高产,促进区域社会经济的可持续发展提供有效的技术支撑,同时也为其它水资源短缺地区提供示范。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the comprehensive development of the economic society, increasing population and the acceleration of urbanization, most of the basins of China are facing the problems of water resources shortage and water environment deterioration, and Songliao basin is of no exception. Especially, the western region of Songhua River basin is located in the semi-arid continental monsoon climate zone and is the important commodity grain base of Northeast China, but its annual precipitation is less than 500mm. Because of the quantity of water resources, and the distribution is not meet to the remand of the crop growth, the crop production is seriously affected and the local food security is restricted. In recent years, the rapid development and utilization of the region has caused the seriously eco-environmental problems, includes grassland degradation, wetlands shrinkage, desertification, salinization, etc. To relieve the drought and the water shortage in western region of Songhua River basin, the water resources should be used fully and rationally, and then these water cycle regulation key technologies, such as the artificial rainfall, the construction of underground reservoirs, inter-basin water transfer, etc, should be used to strength the water resources regulation ability. And before this, the hydrological characteristics and water cycle change trend in the region should be analyzed, and the relationship between water resources and the food production safety should be ensured, and the influence of climate change and human activities on the regional water cycle should be evaluated scientifically, which could be the basis of the other work.Taking the Taoer River basin as a typical region in the western region of Songhua River basin, the paper begins the correlation studies. Firstly, starting with the study on hydrological characteristics change trend of the Taoer River basin, the paper analyzes the long series basin hydrological and meteorological data by using the hydrological series change analysis method. The results show that the precipitation has an decreasing trend since 1993, the evaporation has an increasing trend since 1992, the runoff has an decreasing trend since 1998 and the groundwater level also has an decreasing trend year by year. Because of the influence of natural factors and human activities, the ecological environment has been damaged seriously, such as the gradually expanding of land desertification and salinizatio, grassland degradation and decreased vegetation coverage.Secondly, the paper studies the influence of climate change and human activities on water cycle, and illustrates the interaction between climate, human activities and land-water from the aspects of the basic principle of the water cycle, the basin climate change and basin human activities. On this basis, the water cycle process is divided into the trunk cycle and artificial collateral cycle. Through the quantitative indicators of absolute strength and relative strength, the paper analyzes the basin water cycle strength and the correlation of water cycle and its influence factors. By using the multiple regression method, the paper quantitatively evaluates the influence of human activities and climate change on the water cycle.Finally, the paper studies the relationship between the water resources and food production security, analyzes the space-time distribution of the basin available water resources and calculates the threshold of basin food production security based on the crop irrigation water demands, regional population, per capita ration standards and other relevant data. Based on the relationship between the crop production and current and prior year water resources, the simple linear regression equation is built and the influence of water resources quantity and distribution on the crop production is analyzed by using the series data scatter diagram. At the same time, the problems of the crop production are illustrated in the condition of hydrological characteristics changes in the future.In summary, the paper analyzes the water cycle variation law and the existing related problems in the western region of Songhua River basin under the influence of the climate change and human activities. In the future, combined with the basin actual situation, the results would play an important role in the positive influence of human activities on water cycle. Through the construction of water resources allocation, the relations between man and nature could be coordinated, and the optimal allocation of water resources could be achieve. Therefore, the study will be the basis of study of key technology in the water cycle regulation, and it will ensure the high and stable crop yield in the commodity grain base of Northeast China and provide the effective technical support for the sustainable development of the regional social economy.更多还原