【作者】 冀楠；

【导师】 秦明周；

【作者基本信息】 河南大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 农业生产最基本的物质条件是耕地,它的变化必然会影响到粮食产量的波动,尤其是在我国人多地少,耕地资源十分紧缺的情况下,如果不采取积极有效的措施最终会危及我国的粮食安全,进而会影响到社会的稳定。粮食的供给主要受耕地面积、播种面积、资源环境条件、科学技术、生产者行为、政府政策等多种因素的影响。但从目前来看,耕地数量仍不断下降,资源环境的约束及耕地质量下降都将制约着粮食生产,科学技术在短时间内不会对粮食产量产生决定性的影响,而耕地数量在空间和时间上的动态变化,以及耕地质量的变化对耕地总体生产力水平以及粮食生产有着重要的影响。河南省是我国第一粮食生产大省,粮食总产量占我国总产量的1/10,河南省的粮食生产水平直接关系到我国粮食生产水平。保障河南省粮食生产能力,成为新形势下保证国家粮食安全、社会稳定的必然要求。因此对河南省耕地变化和粮食生产的相关性进行分析有着重要的意义。本文从4个部分对河南省近30年的耕地动态变化及其对粮食生产进行系统研究。全文主要包括4部分:第一部分绪论,主要为第一章。主要阐述论文的研究背景、意义、内容、方法以及技术路线、数据来源等,并通过对相关文献的综述,以明确选题的科学性和合理性。第二部分为第二章。主要为耕地、粮食生产等相关概念的界定以及研究的理论基础。第三部分为实证研究,包括第三、四、五章。第三章从自然、社会经济等方面对研究区概况进行了描述,着重描述了河南省全省粮食总产量、粮食单产、粮食播种面积、复种指数的变化以及全省18个地市粮食生产能力的时空差异。第四章主要是对河南省耕地资源的数量、质量的变化进行了描述;采用耕地利用相对变化率对耕地资源的空间变化进行了描述并运用ArcGIS绘制图件。还运用SPSS软件采用主成分分析法对河南省耕地数量变化的驱动力进行了定量分析。得出经济的发展和城镇化率的不断提高对河南省耕地的影响最为明显。第五章主要是根据河南省粮食产量的变化和耕地动态变化的特点对两者的相关性进行了分析研究。指出耕地是粮食生产的基础,要想保证粮食产量必须保证一定的耕地数量,为耕地的保护和粮食安全提出具体建议。第四部分是结论与展望,即第六章内容。得出论文的主要结论,指出本研究有待于进一步完善之处。论文所构建的研究分析框架,对河南省的耕地变化与粮食产量进行了系统地分析与研究,希望对河南省耕地的可持续利用和粮食安全研究有所裨益,也希望对河南省粮食生产战略、有效地制定河南省土地方针政策具有一定的实践意义与参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fundamental material conditions of agricultural production is cropland, which changes will affect to fluctuations of the grain production.Especially in China, who has a large population with relatively little land,if not take effective measures will eventually endanger our food security, even social stability. Grain supplies influenced by many factors such as cropland area, sowing area, resources and environment conditions, science and technology, behavior of producer and the government policies. But Judging from the current ,the quantity and quality of cultivated land declining ,along with the resources and the environment threat will restricts food production. In a short time, science and technology not a decisive impact to grain output , while the cropland quantity dynamic changes in space and timeand quality variations has important effect on the overall productivity levels of cropland, as well as in food productionHenan is the biggest province of grain production in China, which total grain output is One-tenth of our cuntry and has directly relationship with our grain production level. In order to ensure the national food security and social stability,it guarded henan grain production ability is necessary. Therefore, analyse the relationship with farmland change and the grain production had great significance in He Nan.This article has system research on ofcultivated land dynamic change and grain production almost 30 years In He Nan.It divided into four parts:The first part is introduction, for the first chapter. This part mainly expounds the my research background, significance, contents, methods and technical route and the data sources, etc, and through the related literatures were reviewed, in order to make clear expatiates the scientific and reasonable.The second part is the second chapter,which is mainly defined concepts such as farmland and grain production, meanwhile study of the theoretical basis..The third part is empirical study,including third,fourth and fifth chapter. The third chapter described the general situation of researched area from the perspective of natural, social economic and so on. It represent that the changes of total grain, grain yield, the grain sowing area, replanting index and 18 cities’s grain production capacity of spatio-temporal difference in He Nan.The fourth chapter give a description of the changes of HeNan’s cultivated land resources quantity and quality. Using relative rate of farmland use describe the spatial variation of cultivated land resources and ArcGIS draw maps. In addition, using principal component analysis method in SPSS software quantitative analyzed the land driving forces of farmland quantity variation in HeNan .The result is the development of the economy and the improvement of urbanization rate had the geart influence of farmland in HeNan province. The fifth chapter’s analysis and research mainiy based on the relationship with grain production and farmland change characteristics. This part pointed out that farmland is the basis of grain production.If we want to ensure food production we must guarantee a certain quantity of farmland, at the same time ,it provided the countermeasure for the arable land and food security. The fourth part is the conclusion and prospect, namely,sixth chapter. This part of the main content is that give the main conclusions and points out that this study needs to be further perfect place.This paper constructs the research framework is systematically analyzes and studies of He Nan’s farmland change and graincrop production ,through this paper I hope made beneficial effect in the research of sustainable utilization of arable land and food security. Besides,I hope has certain practical meaning and reference value in henan’s grain production strategy and formulate effectively land policies.更多还原