基于GIS技术的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估

【作者】 郜志超；

【导师】 滕骏华；

【作者基本信息】 首都师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 全球变暖背景下,海平面上升,极端天气事件和气象灾害频发。由台风引起的风暴潮灾害越来越频繁,对我国沿海地区构成严重的威胁,需要进一步增强台风风暴潮灾害防灾减灾能力,提高台风风暴潮灾害风险评估的准确性和实用性。同时,基于数值模拟方法对台风风暴潮进行预报的技术不断进步、自然灾害研究理论的不断深入和完善以及GIS技术得到广泛发展与应用,为台风风暴潮灾害风险评估提供了新的理论基础和技术支持,同时也促使关于台风风暴潮灾害风险评估的研究出现了一个新的研究趋势,即运用GIS技术、融合多种数学统计分析理论、结合数值模拟技术与自然灾害风险评估方法进行台风风暴潮灾害风险评估。本文以浙江省台州市椒江地区为例,在分析台州市沿海区域的地理、水文、社会经济特点的基础上,重点讨论了台风风暴潮数值模型的构建和台州市台风风暴潮风险评估的具体实现流程。利用台风风暴潮灾害风险评估模型,结合数值模拟技术和GIS技术对台州市椒江区域的台风风暴潮灾害危险度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力进行了分析,并在此基础上运用GIS软件进行进一步的淹没分析、叠置分析以及格网拟合计算,最后结合遥感影像绘制出台州市台风风暴潮灾害高分辨率风险区划图。研究结果表明：在GIS技术支持下,利用数值模拟和遥感等多种技术进行台风风暴潮灾害风险评估,能够绘制出精确度更高、实用性更好的高分辨率风险区划图。因而,本文所作的研究可以为台州市有关风暴潮减灾部门及时有效地进行防潮抗灾部署提供决策支持,为台州市规划部门进行城市规划提供参考依据,为保险行业相关技术分析提供理论帮助,同时可为我国其它地区的台风风暴潮防灾减灾工作提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sea level rising, extreme weather event and meteorological disasters frequent occurrence under global warming condition. Storm surge disaster caused by typhoon frequent occurrence and serious threat to the coastal areas of China. It is necessary to further enhance the capability of typhoon storm surge disaster prevention and reduction, and improve the correctness and practicability of typhoon storm surge risk assessments. Also, technical advances in typhoon storm surge forecast by numerical simulation methods, and the natural disaster theory have been continuously improved, and geographic information system technology has been developed and applied in wide. All this provided new theory and technology to evaluate typhoon storm surge disaster risk, and it also caused a new research tendency to study the typhoon storm surge disaster risk assessment, that is using the GIS technology and fusion of mathematical and statistical analysis theories and with numerical simulation and natural disaster risk assessments to study the storm surge risk assessment.The paper takes Jiaojiang area of Taizhou of Zhejiang province for study, after analyzed the characteristics of physical geography, hydrological, socio-economic in coastal region of Taizhou. Then puts the focus on how to modeling typhoon storm surge risk assessment model and the concrete steps to apply typhoon storm surge risk assessment model in Taizhou. With the typhoon storm surge risk assessment model and researched the typhoon storm surge disaster risk, vulnerability and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal region of Taizhou by numerical simulation and GIS technology. Then, in support of GIS software and using the submerging analysis, overlay analysis and grid computing, got the typhoon storm surge risk zoning map of Taizhou with high resolution on the remote sensing image.Then, the research in the paper could provide decision support for the department of storm surge disaster reduction to deploy disaster prevention and reduction with timely and effectively, and provide academic reference for the planning department of Taizhou, and provide theory help for the insurance industry to analysis, and also could provide reference theory for other coastal region in China to the typhoon storm surge disaster prevention and reduction.更多还原