【作者】 张颖；

【导师】 耿伟；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国不断深入对内改革和对外开放,经济取得了快速的增长,城市化进程不断加快,建筑规模快速扩张,城乡居民消费结构逐步升级,建筑装饰行业呈现迅猛增长的态势,国内林产品市场的需求也直线上升,林产品的国际贸易参与度越来越高。中国已经成为世界林产品生产、消费和进出口贸易的重要国家之一。在全球环境问题日益严峻的情况下,森林及相关产品作为战略性资源,地位日渐重要,对于森林资源稀缺的我国,其意义尤为突出。论文首先从我国森林资源的概况入手,对我国林产品贸易的发展现状进行了分析阐述。基于国内森林资源状况、我国社会经济发展状况、我国林业固定资产投资状况、林产品国内外消费状况等多个角度论述我国林产品贸易的影响因素以揭示林产品进出口中存在的问题。论文分别对林产品进出口进行供给和需求分析,有助于准确把握中国林产品对外贸易的特征。不仅有利于推进我国林产品贸易健康顺利发展,而且致力于为林产品贸易市场的健康良好发展提供建议,为进一步深入的研究奠定基础。论文首先运用基础统计分析方法阐述近年来我国森林资源的禀赋现状、主要林产品进出口贸易状况,在此基础上,利用需求分析和供给分析对我国主要林产品进出口影响因素进行了理论阐述。进一步地,采用计量经济学中的向量自回归模型建立我国主要林产品进出口影响因素的模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法探讨其影响机制以及影响程度等问题；进而根据理论分析和模型分析的结果,提出相应的政策建议。通过分析得出：我国林产品贸易主要进口资源型产品,出口产品以劳动密集型产品为主,且我国林产品总体来说处于竞争劣势。林产品进口贸易主要受需求因素影响,而林产品出口贸易主要受供给因素影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous deepening of China’s reform and opening up domestically, the economy has seen rapid growth. Urbanization is accelerating, building and decorating industries are growing rapid, the demand of forest products is soaring and China’s participation in the international trade of forest products is increasing. China has become one of the major countries of the production, consumption and import and export trade of forest products. With the background of serious global environmental problems, forest and related products is of the growing importance as a strategic resource, especially for China with scarce forest resources.The analysis began with the overview of China’s forest resources, and then discussed the development and competitiveness of forest products trade. Based on the domestic forest resources, socio-economic development of China, fixed asset investment situation of forestry, domestic and foreign consumption of forest products, the determinants of China’s forest products trade were discussed from different point of views. The analysis of import and export of forest products from supply and demand sides respectively helped to accurately grasp the characteristics of China’s forest products trade. It not only helped to promote healthy and smooth development of China’s forest products trade, but also was committed to provide suggestions to the healthy development of the forest products market and the further research.First of all, the analysis described the recent endowment of the forest resources with statistical methods and the development and competitiveness of forest products trade. Then, it discussed the determinants of China’s forest product import and export theoretically both from demand analysis and supply analysis. After that, it made two vector autoregressive models to the determinants of China’s import and exports of forest products respectively. It analyzed the factors’ impact mechanism with impulse response functions and variance decomposition. At last, the corresponding policy recommendations were made based on the analysis.The analysis indicated that:China mainly imports resource-based products and exports labor-intensive products, and China’s forest products are at competitive disadvantage. Import of forest products is mainly-affected by the demand factors, while export of forest products is mainly affected by supply factors.更多还原