【作者】 王晓沛；

【导师】 孙玉环；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的飞速发展,城乡差距问题日益突出。在党的十六大把统筹城乡经济社会发展问题作为全面建设小康社会的重大任务提出来后,党的十七届三中全会明确提出必须统筹城乡经济社会发展,始终把着力构建新型工农、城乡关系作为加快推进现代化的重大战略。对城乡统筹进行合理的评价,能为分析城乡差距的大小提供重要依据,而对城乡统筹的评价准确与否又取决于是否有完善的城乡统筹评价指标体系,因此建立一套较为完善的城乡统筹评价体系,对加快城乡统筹进程,保证城乡协调发展,促进新农村建设都具有重要意义。本文以大连市为研究对象,以定性和定量相结合的研究方法,系统的评价了大连市城乡统筹发展的程度及其形成的原因。本文的研究思路是：在借鉴国内外现有的理论研究成果和实践的基础上确定一套适合中国国情的城乡统筹评价指标体系。确定评价指标体系之后,通过对比各种确定权重方法的优缺点,选择运用层次分析和主成分分析最优组合的这种主客观相结合的方法对各个指标进行赋权,综合运用模糊层次分析评价法对大连市城乡统筹程度进行测度。具体探讨城乡统筹的评价方法和应用问题,同时从实践的角度验证本文评价方法的有效性。全文共分为6章,各章的具体内容概括如下：第1章是引言。该章对本文的研究背景及意义、文章的结构安排,以及主要工作和创新之处进行了说明。第2章是城乡统筹发展的理论与实践。该章简述国内外相关的研究成果和理论研究进展。第3章是城乡统筹发展的评价指标体系。该章就建立指标体系的准则,以及指标的初选和优化展开讨论。并根据城乡统筹指标体系应具有的功能和确立原则,构建了一套理想的城乡统筹评价体系。第4章是大连市城乡统筹评价方法研究。由于农村的数据难以收集,针对大连市制定了一套可操作的指标体系。该章系统地介绍了5种确定指标权重的方法,最终利用其中的两种方法：层次分析法和主成分分析法,并通过最优赋权组合模型将两种方法得到的权重进行最优化,得到更为准确、有效的权重,最后采用模糊综合评价模型来评价城乡统筹程度。第5章是大连市城乡统筹程度测度分析。对大连市城乡统筹程度进行综合评价,得到相对准确和科学的结论,进而也从实践的角度验证了最优赋权对城乡统筹模糊综合评价方法的有效性。又对大连市城乡统筹的原因进行了分析。第6章是全文总结及对大连市城乡统筹发展的建议。该章提出了促进大连市城乡协调发展的政策和建议,从多个角度,多个方面分别提出对策,并对全文进行总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economic development, the issue of the gap between urban and rural has become increasingly prominent. The 16th Communist Party of China Central Committee put forward to take the issue of make overall for urban and rural economic and social development as the major task of overall build the well-to-do society. Then in the third Plenum of the 17th CPC Central Committee proposed clearly the necessity of make overall for urban and rural economic and social development, and took always the construction of new industry and agriculture, the relation of urban and rural as a major strategy to accelerate modernization. The reasonable evaluation of coordinating urban-rural development can provide an important basis for the analysis of the size of the gap between urban and rural. And the accuracy of the evaluation of coordinating urban-rural development depend on whether has a comprehensive evaluation index system of coordinating urban-rural development. So building a relatively perfect evaluation system of urban and rural to accelerate coordinated development between urban and rural areas and promote the construction of new countryside has important significance. This paper based on the Dalian as research object by qualitative and quantitative research methods to evaluate the development and the cause of formation of the system of the urban and rural in Dalian.This research is:through the introduction of background and significance and the research achievements at home and abroad to analyze the meaning of urban and rural development and outline the development theory and practice. Then it makes a ideal index system. But due to the problems of rural data collection, it simplifies the index to get an operational evaluation index system of urban and rural areas.It introduces five methods to determine the weight after determining the evaluation index system. Then it analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of each method. At last, it chooses principal component analysis and expert grading the optimal combination of the method of combining the subjective and objective to empower each index and fuzzy synthesis methods of hierarchical analysis method of Dalian urban and rural level is discussed, the specific measures of urban and rural areas and evaluation method, but also from the angle of practice proved the effectiveness of this evaluation method.The paper is divided into six chapters, the specific contents summed up as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction. To begin with the research background, research significance and the structure, it presents the main work and innovation of the study.Chapter 2 describes the theory and practice of urban and rural development. It introduces the relevant research of domestic and foreign.Chapter 3 is the index system of urban and rural development. It discusses the criterion of the index system, and the primary and optimized index. According to the principle and the functions of the index system, it builds a set of ideal evaluation system.Chapter 4 discusses the evaluation method of Dalian. Because it is difficult to collect the rural data, it develops a set of index system of Dalian. There are five methods to ascertain the index weight, finally using two methods:the, analytic hierarchy process (Ahp) and principal component analysis. Through the optimal combination of two kinds of model methods of weight, it gets accurate and effective weight. Finally it uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the degree of urban and rural areas.Chapter 5 is the degree measure analysis of urban and rural in Dalian. Through the comprehensive evaluation, it makes a scientific conclusion.It tests the effectiveness of the proposed method from practical. Then it analyzes the reason of Dalian urban and rural areas. Chapter 6 is summary and suggestions. It proposes the policy and suggestion to promote the development of urban and rural coordinately from various angles, aspects.更多还原