【作者】 刘波；

【导师】 邓群钊；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 石油,天然气及煤炭等传统化石型能源,随着人类的开采与使用正日益枯竭并且带来全球环境的恶化,因此,开发节能,新能源及可再生能源成为大多数发达国家和发展中国家21世纪能源战略的基本选择。LED,半导体照明,作为第三代照明技术,具有节能环保,应用广泛等特点,具有巨大的发展空间。江西的LED产业具有良好的产业基础,已经形成了完整的产业链和一定的产业规模,随着南昌国家半导体照明工程产业化基地的确立,南昌成为首批21个国家“十城万盏”半导体照明应用工程试点城市之一,江西鄱阳湖生态经济区的确立,江西的LED产业迎来了新的发展动力与发展契机。然而,在江西LED发展过程中存在着很多的问题,如何科学有限的制定发展规划与发展战略成为了一个重点问题,政府必须将有效的资源投入到关键技术领域,才能确保政府的投资,决策发挥出最大作用,这成为了政府需要和解决的一个重要问题。技术预见提供了一种优先选择发展技术与领域的工具,而基于SWOT战略决策模型的建立为发展战略的选择提供了一种具有定性定量综合集成功效的模式,这种模式相比以前单纯的SWOT定性分析,产业机理分析更加具有科学性与说服力。本文首先对江西省LED产业内外部环境进行了详细阐述,利用SWOT法,专家调查法,德尔菲法,找出江西LED产业的主要优势、劣势、机遇和威胁进行分析,制定了SO、ST、WO、WT、战略。其次,建立了基于SWOT方法的战略决策模型对江西省LED产业的优势,劣势,机遇,威胁因素进行定性,定量分析,并利用战略象限角,战略三角形,战略因素的力度确定了发展战略的选择模式。再次,运用技术预见相关方法设计了调查问卷并开展了德尔菲调查,然后运用建立的技术预见模型对问卷进行了数据分析,最后得出了技术预见的相关结论。最后,结合江西LED产业内外部环境分析,SWOT分析,基于SWOT的战略决策模型,技术预见的相关结果,确立了江西LED产业发展战略的指导思想,发展思路,战略目标,主要任务,发展战略,战略保障措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the exploitation of oil, gas and coal and other traditional fossil energy sources, they are drained and bringing about environmental degradation. Developing new and renewable energy became the prime choice of most developed and developing countries in the 21st century energy strategy. LED,as a third generation of illumination technology, energy-saving and widely used, owns a great space for development. The LED industry of jiangxi has good industrial foundation and have already formed a complete industry chain, with the establish of Nanchang National Semiconductor Lighting Project Industrialization Base and the first batch of 21 LED application pilot cities, Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, the LED industry of jiangxi meets a new developing opportunity and impetus.However, we have many problems need to process, how to carry out development rules and developing strategy scientific and effective became a key puzzle. The government must put the limited resources into key technology area in order to make sure the investment and decision of government effective. Technology Foresight provides a preferred area of development technologies and tools, and strategic decisions based on the SWOT model for the development strategies provide a comprehensive integration with the efficacy of qualitative and quantitative model that compared to previous simple SWOT qualitative analysis, mechanism analysis industry has a more scientific and convincing.First of all, the article elaborated the all surrounding, and analyzed the advantages, weakness, opportunity, threats of LED industry of jiangxi with SWOT analysis, Delphi, and Expert investigation method and formulated SO、S、WO、WT strategies. Secondly, this article established SWOT quantitative model to analyzed the advantages, weakness, opportunity, threats of LED industry of Jiangxi, and use the strength of Strategic factor, the angel of strategic intensity, Strategic triangle to determine the choice of LED developing model. Thirdly, this article apply the methods of technology foresight to design questionnaire and carry out delphi investigation, then, this article apply the model of technology foresight to deal with the data of questionnaire, finally, this article come to conclusion about LED industry.Finally, this article proposes the guiding idea, developing thought, strategic target, main task, development strategy, the strategic security measures according to the analysis of inside and outside environment of LED industry, the results of swot model, technology foresight.更多还原