基于WEB平台的江西有色金属技术预见方法的研究

【作者】 李洁；

【导师】 许菱；

【作者基本信息】 江西理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 当今社会,在经济增长和科技进步的过程中,技术预见发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文通过研究技术预见与网络平台相结合的方式,为江西省有色金属产业的技术预见项目做出一个技术预见的网络平台,为产业技术预见的发展提出了科学建议。这对于转变经济增长方式,选择技术投入,实现经济可持续发展,具有重要的现实意义。本文首先从技术预见的相关概念和情况入手,说明了技术预见在国内和国外的发展现状、发展趋势、及其对国家和行业的重要性。然后论述了技术预见的定义和技术预见活动中常用的方法,并对其进行优劣分析。之后解释了如何用信息化的网络平台支撑技术预见的收集、处理、分析系统,并对现有的统计方法和评价体系进行了阐述和优化,得出了本文认为的较优的方法。最后,阐述了江西有色金属产业技术预见网络平台的设计,通过对这个课题的研究分析,阐述了用江西有色金属产业技术预见的网络平台进行技术预见活动的步骤和过程,并提出今后的研究方向仍然是数据挖掘,即如何最大限度地提高数据利用率,充分挖掘数据价值,以便更好的为决策提供指导。本文亦以技术预见过程中的网络化、信息化手段和预见活动后的评价体系为研究对象,探索新的技术预见方式和不同赋值原则之下产生的不同结果,旨在用更少时间、更低成本来进行江西有色金属行业的技术预见活动,更好地为决策者提供决策参考和决策依据,寻找产业发展和技术进步的潜力,从而推动江西省有色金属产业的进步。本文运用管理学、统计学、计量经济学、数据库技术、网络技术等相关学科的理论和分析方法,内容主要围绕技术预见的网络化实施进行。主要研究成果是:(1)根据技术预见及其相关知识,使用ASP.NET、SQL数据库等WEB技术搭建了江西有色金属技术预见网络平台,该网络平台从用户角度来看包括了关键技术汇总系统,两轮的征询和统计系统,最后的技术预见发布系统,新闻系统等几大模块,模块的设立既结合了技术预见的基本理论,又考虑到了江西省有色金属行业的实际,较为可靠。(2)针对统计分析的结果,提出不同的赋值原则对预见结果的影响,并从实际出发提出可行的政策建议。本文的创新之处在于:(1)改良了传统的技术预见方法,首次把技术预见的全过程放到网络平台上实施,使得成本降低,时间缩短;(2)对赋值原则进行了适当的改进,更加全面的考虑到各种赋值原则对预测结果的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 In modern society, technology foresight plays more and more important roles in the economic growth and the development of science and technology. This paper makes a network platform of technology foresight for the technology foresight item of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry, studies the integration of technology foresight and network platform,and then gives scientific advices to the development of the industry for the future. It has important Realistic Significance to the conversion of economic growth mode, the selection of technical inputs, and the achievement of sustained economic growth.Firstly, this paper starts from the technology foresight’s relevant concepts and circumstances, explains the developing situation and trend of technology foresight both in and out of the nation, the significance to a nation and an industry. Secondly, it discourses the technology foresight’s definition and commonly used methods, and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. Thirdly, it explains that how to use the network platform supporting the collection, the disposal and the analysis system of technology foresight. Moreover, it expounds and optimizes the existing statistical method and estimate system. And then I think I elicit a better method of my own. The last but not least important, this paper expounds the network platform for the technology foresight item of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry, through the research and analysis of this problem, expounds the processes of the technology foresight item of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry, and shows that the future research direction is data mining, that is how to maximize the data utilization and fully exploit the data value. Doing this is to better provide guidance for decision-making.This paper’s research object is the webifying and informatization of technology foresight’s process and the estimate system of technology foresight’s result. It explores a new mode of technology foresight and the different results under the different assignment principle. I want to carry out the Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry’s technology foresight with less time and lower cost, provide better reference for decision makers, find the potential of industrial development and technical progress, and thereby promote the advancement of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry. This paper uses the theories and the analysis methods of management, econometrics, database technology, network technology and some relevant subjects. And its content is mainly about the implement of technology foresight’s webifying. The main research briefs are:(1) Our group constructs the Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry technology foresight network platform by using web technology (ASP.NET, SQL database). The whole process is based on technology foresight and its relevant knowledge. The network platform consists of the key technology summary system, the consultation and statistical system of two rounds, the final publishing system of technology foresight and information systems. These modules instauration combine the basic theory of technology foresight with the facts of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry. It’s more reliable.(2) Aim at the result of statistical analysis, I advance that different assignment principle will have different influences of the result of the foresight. And then I give some viable advice based on reality.This paper’s innovations are:(1) Improve the traditional technology foresight’s method. Put the whole process of technology foresight on a network platform so that to reduce the cost and shorten the time.(2) Do some proper amelioration to assignment principle. Consider sundry assignment principles’influence to the foresight result more general.更多还原