【作者】 成英文；

【导师】 张辉；

【作者基本信息】 北京第二外国语学院 ， 旅游管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 自1978年以来,中国旅游经济一直保持强劲的增长势头。经过30年的发展,旅游产业已经成长为国民经济的一大产业,在经济社会发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色。随着在经济社会中重要性的提升,旅游产业曾分别被确立为第三产业的重点产业、第三产业新兴产业序列第一位、国民经济重点产业、国民经济增长点,2009年,国务院常务会议讨论并通过了《关于加快发展旅游业的意见》,旅游业被确立为国民经济的战略性支柱产业。然而作为一个受到各级政府和产业界高度重视的产业,旅游业在大量的资本、劳动力投入下并未取得明显的经济增长优势。近年来旅游收入占GDP的比重不仅没有上升,反而逐年下滑,在第三产业中的比重也停滞不前。和1998年同时被列为国民经济增长点的信息产业、房地产业、汽车业相比,旅游产业增长速度最慢。本文第一章是导论,第二章是理论综述,第三章开始进入正题。在借鉴传统旅游经济增长衡量方法的基础上,提出了旅游经济增长的四个核算指标,旅游消费、旅游收入、旅游投资、旅游出口,并利用历史数据对中国旅游经济增长的历程进行回顾,总结了中国旅游经济增长的基本特点。接着把旅游产业置于国民经济序列中,计算了旅游经济在国民经济中的比重,并和信息产业、房地产业、汽车业进行了横向比较。第四章利用计量经济学相关理论和方法,对宏观经济变量和旅游经济增长的关系进行了定量研究。首先从国民经济发展总体水平入手,分析GDP、人均GDP、城市化水平和旅游经济增长之间的关系。其次分别对影响旅游消费、旅游投资、旅游收入、旅游出口的因素进行单项分析,并在此基础上建立了旅游消费、旅游投资、旅游出口的宏观经济决定模型。第五章利用新古典增长理论中的索洛模型估计了劳动力、资本、全要素生产率(广义技术进步)对旅游产业收入增长的贡献率,得到了中国旅游产业生产函数。由于旅游产业涵盖不同的行业,本文以饭店业、旅行社业为代表,分别估计了饭店业生产函数和旅行社业生产函数,测算了生产要素对各个行业的贡献。最后,利用各省数据,估计了生产要素对中国各省旅游经济的贡献,并根据资本和劳动力的贡献程度把我国30个省市的旅游经济增长划分为资本驱动型、劳动力驱动型和资本一劳动力共同驱动型。第六章利用制度经济学理论,研究了制度变迁对旅游经济增长的影响。主要分析了产权制度变迁、市场化制度变迁、收入分配制度变迁、假日制度变迁对旅游收入、旅游消费的影响程度。第七章总结了上述章节的研究结论,并在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s tourism economy has remained steep rise since 1978. With this rapid development during the past 30 years, tourism industry has become a great industry of the national economy and played a more important role in the society. As its importance in economic and social development is increasing, tourism industry has been regarded as the key industry of the tertiary industry, the first industry among new industries of tertiary industry, key industries of national economy, new economic growth source of national economy at different times. On Dec.1st,2009, Executive meetings of the State Council discussed and adopted the“Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Tourism Industry”, in this documents, tourism has been established as a strategic pillar industry of national economy.However, tourism industry, an industry which has been valued highly by governments of all levels and industry circles, did not enjoy its significant economic growth advantage in accord with the great amount of input of labor and capital. In recent years, the proportion of total tourism income in GDP has not seen the rise, but has been decreasing year by year. Furthermore, the proportion of total tourism income in tertiary industry has been at a standstill. The growth rate of tourism industry was the slowest, in comparison with the information, real estate and auto industry which were defined as a new source of economic growth of national economy together with tourism in 1998.For chapter 1 is the introductory, and a theoretical review is the second chapter. In chapter 3, the author proposes four variables to measure the economic growth of tourism by employing the traditional method. These variables include tourism consumption, tourism income, tourism investment and tourism export. Then, the author reviews the history of tourism economic growth in China by using historical data and generalizes basic features of tourism economy growth in China. At the end of this chapter, by putting the tourism industry under national economy series, the author calculates the proportion of tourism income in the national economy and draws a horizontal comparison between tourism industry and information, real estate and auto industry.In chapter 4, the author conducts a quantitative study of relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism economic growth based on the basic theory and method of econometrics. First, the relationship between tourism economic growth and GDP, per capita GDP, the level of urbanization has been analyzed; then, there is an individual study of factors which has influenced tourism consumption, tourism invest, tourism export. And under this condition, the macro-economic decision models of tourism consumption, tourism investment, tourism export has therefore been established. In chapter 5, based on the Solow Model of Neo-classical growth theory, the author estimates the contribution by labor, capital, total factor productivity (TEP) and draws a production function of tourism industry of China. Because tourism industry consists of many businesses such as hotels and travel agencies, the paper estimates production function of hotel and travel agency respectively and calculates the contribution by factor of production to hotel and travel agency. Similarly, the contribution by factor of production to provinces of China has also been estimated, and the tourism economic growth of 30 provinces has been divided into 3 categories: capital-driven, labor-driven and capital-labor driven.Chapter 6 concerns the influence on tourism economic growth by institutional change in terms of the Institutional economics theory. It is mainly focused on the institutional change of the property, the market, the income and Distribution System and the holiday reform, which has a significant influence on tourism economic growth.Chapter 7 is a summary of the whole article, and some policies are recommended correspondingly.更多还原