【作者】 刘春颖；

【导师】 肖青；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的发展和人们生活水平的不断提高,人们的环境保护和可持续发展的意识也变得越来越强烈。故具有节能、洁净、环保、运输成本低的优质特性的LNG,逐渐受到人们广泛的关注。同时,液化天然气的需求量的增长速度也是逐步加快。据海关统计,中国2009年进口553.2万吨液化天然气,2008年为334万吨,2007年为291万吨。目前我国天然气消费远低于世界平均水平,随着我国能源转型对快速发展天然气需求的日益增大,预计2020年供需缺口将达到1500亿立方米左右,净进口量比重将达40%。所以,我国的液化天然气运输将达到一个黄金期。然而,随着运输量的逐渐增加,伴随着运输所带来的风险也将同步增多。LNG具有天然气的易燃易爆性,并且液化天然气的高度不稳定性,近年来,不断发生液化气船的恶性事件,严重威胁了液化气运输的健康发展。而且我国的液化气进口主要依靠水上运输。水上交通运输环境的好坏直接影响了LNG船舶通航环境的安全性,所以对LNG船舶通航安全保障评价具有非常重要的意义。本文从深圳西部港区的实际通航情况出发,在安全保障评价理论的支持和指导下,通过对港区的通航环境分析和通航安全的风险因素识别,建立通航安全保障评价的指标体系,结合定性的二元比较法和模糊综合评价对港区的安全保障进行评价。通过计算确定深圳西部港区的LNG船舶的通航是否安全。为LNG船舶通航安全提供了一种有效的评价方法,对于现实的船舶通航安全问题的解决具有一定的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of Chinese economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, awareness of environmental protection and sustainable development is becoming more and more strongly.LNG,with the good characteristics of lower transportation costs、clean、energy conservation,is gradually been widespread concerned.Also,the growth of LNG demand is accelerating. According to customs statistics,China imported 5.532 million tons of liquefied natural gas in 2009,3.34 in 2008,2.91 in 2007.Until now,the LNG consumption of China is much lower than the average of the world,because of energy transformation,the demand of LNG is increasing. Supply and demand gap in 2020 is expected to reach about 150 billion cubic meters, the proportion of net imports will reach 40%. Therefore, our LNG’s transportation will reach a golden period.However, with the increasement of transportation,the risk is becoming more, LNG is a natural gas with flammable and explosive nature and high degree of uncertainty.Recently, Vicious incidents occurred LPG ships, the healthy development of LNG transport is suffering a serious threat. China’s LPG imports mainly depend on water transport.Whether the waterborne transportation environment is good or not, directly affects the LNG ship navigation safety. So, the safety evaluation on the LNG ship navigation is very importantThis article starts from the actual navigable circumstances of the shenzhen western port,under the direction of FSA,through the navigaton environmental analysis of the port and identification the risk factors for traffic safety,establishing the navigable safety evaluation index system,combinating the AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the safety and security. By calculating, whether the navigation of the shenzhen western port is safety or not is determined. For the LNG ship navigable safety,it is an effective evaluation method. The real solution to the problem of navigable safety has a certain significance.更多还原