【作者】 瞿雪梅；

【导师】 吕靖； 苏德勤；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 国家之间的贸易往来,目前主要靠海洋运输进行。船舶到达不同的港口,都要有当地的船舶代理为船舶提供作业安排、进出口手续、船员就医、物料供应等各种服务。过去天津市的船舶代理市场只有天津外代一家代理,但随着中国进出口贸易的繁荣,国家逐步开放了船舶代理市场。天津市的船舶代理企业如雨后春笋般纷纷建立,市场竞争日趋激烈。如何在这机遇与挑战并存的时代大浪潮中屹立不倒,牢固占据天津国际船舶代理市场的领头人地位?这是值得每个天津外代管理人员思考的问题。本文运用基于方差倒数法的组合预测模型对天津港集装箱吞吐量进行了预测,综合运用了线性回归方法、布朗单一参数线性指数平滑法及生长曲线趋势外推法三种预测方法,拟合效果良好。由于天津外代集装箱业务在天津港集装箱业务中占有重要地位,本文在天津港集装箱吞吐量预测的基础上,通过分析天津外代所占的比重及其变化情况对天津外代集装箱箱量进行了预测。同时,本文运用幂指数曲线趋势外推法对未来三年天津港进出港船舶艘数进行了预测,根据天津外代船舶艘数占全港的份额得出天津外代船舶艘数预测值,并对预测结果进行了分析。通过以上预测分析,本文对天津外代的业务发展形势做出了明确判断,为新时期下天津外代发展策略的提出提供了客观依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Trade between countries, now depends mainly on maritime transport. A ship calling any port, must have a local shipping agent to provide such services as stevedoring arrangements, crew medical treatment, supply, import and export formalities, etc. In the past, there is only one agency company in Tianjin market---China Ocean Shipping Agency, Tianjin(PENAVICO TIANJIN). With the prosperity of foreign trade in China and the entrance of WTO, the government has been opening the agency market gradually. A lot of agency companies have been established in Tianjin and made market competition increasingly fierce. How could PENAVICO TIANJIN stand firmly under the circumstance of great opportunities and huge challenges? How could she keep her position of the biggest market sharer? These are significant problems worth deep thoughts by every PENAVICO manager.In this paper, Tianjin Port Container Throughput Forecast is made by using the combination forecasting model based on inverse variance method. Together with three forecasting methods as the linear regression method, Brown single parameter linear exponential smoothing and trend extrapolation of growth curve, the consequences are good and quite parallel. Because PENAVICO TIANJIN plays an important role in Tianjin Port container business, this article based on Tianjin Port container throughput forecast, reaches a forecast of PENAVICO’s container volume through the analysis of her proportion and its changes in the past years. At the same time, exponential curve extrapolation leads to the numbers of calling vessels at Tianjin Port for the next three years; then, according to the proportion of PENAVICO TIANJIN occupied, her ship volume comes out which is followed by a further analysis.Through the above prediction and analysis, this article comes to a series of clear judgments for PENAVICO TIANJIN’s business development situation and provide her with an objective basis on the development strategy proposal for the new period.更多还原