【作者】 孟祥中；

【导师】 杨玉中；

【作者基本信息】 河南理工大学 ， 系统工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是一个以煤炭为主要能源的国家,也是煤炭资源大国,但在开采过程中未实现对灾害事故的有效控制,造成安全事故频发。纵观煤矿事故发生的原因,除煤炭赋存条件之外,安全意识淡薄、“三违”现象严重、措施不到位等等安全诚信缺失行为构成了煤矿安全事故频发的主要原因。因此,对煤矿企业开展安全诚信管理是抑制安全事故频发的重大举措。安全诚信评价是安全诚信管理工作的重要环节,搞好安全诚信评价对于完善煤矿安全工作格局、提高安全管理工作的针对性、提升煤矿安全监察工作绩效具有重要的理论意义和重大的现实意义。通过运用系统评价理论和贝叶斯网络等多学科交叉理论,理论分析与实证研究相结合,对煤矿企业安全诚信评价体系进行深入地研究,为煤矿企业开展安全诚信评价提供理论支持和技术支撑。通过事故原因分析、专家访谈,在介绍评价指标体系建立原则、指标筛选的基础上,构建了煤矿企业安全诚信评价的指标体系。引入了贝叶斯网络理论,利用Bootstrap方法集结专家的主观意见,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿安全诚信评价模型。又在前人研究的基础上,进一步提出了提高煤矿企业安全诚信水平的对策。最后,对河南平禹煤电有限公司安全诚信状况进行评价,提出进一步提升该矿安全诚信的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Coal is the main sources of energy in our country, and our country is great power in coal sources. The safety calamity has been frequently occurred, because the disaster is not controlled effectively during the exploitation. If we study causes of disasters, it is the main cause that the coal mine enterprises have not correctly behaviors in the safety integrity, such as the weakly safety consciousness, the serious appearance of“three non-observances”, the ineffective measures, besides the natural condition. In order to commending the disasters, it is a significant measure to launch the safety integrity management in coal mine enterprises. The safety integrity evaluation is the major part in the safety integrity management, therefore, it is significant in theory and actuality to perfect the style of arrangement in coalmine safety, to increase the directionality of safety management and to improve the performance of safety supervision.The evaluation system of coalmine enterprise safety integrity was deeply studied with the use of system evaluation and Bayesian networks theories. Theoretical analysis and actuality research ware all applied during the study. This could provide theoretic and technical support to coalmine enterprises. After introducing the principles for building index system and sifting indexes, the evaluation index system of coalmine enterprises safety integrity was put forward, which was based on disaster analysis and seeking advices from experts. Bayesian networks theory was introduced, and then Coalmine safety integrity evaluation model based on Bayesian networks was built, which adopt the Bootstrap method for experts’subject probability aggregation. The measures to improve coalmine safety integrity ware put forward, which ware on the foundation of the preceding study. Finally, a case studied of the evaluation on the safety integrity situation in Henan Ping-yu coal & electricity co., LTD, and some advices to promote the level of the coalmine ware put forward.更多还原