【作者】 梁根琴；

【导师】 吴昌南；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 我国自改革开放以来,在经济保持高速增长的同时,我国经济增长已表现出对能源的高消费和强依赖的特点,大多数工业行业对能源的依赖程度不断提高,能源对我国工业经济发展的制约作用开始显现,并日渐突出,如何正确理解能源消费与工业行业的关系,并以此来分析能源消费对工业品价格冲击力的作用机制,从而为降低能耗成本,提高工业部门产业的国际竞争力提高政策思路具有重要的现实意义。这不仅决定着我国短期和中长期能源发展战略的制定,还关系着未来产业结构的调整方向和整个国家的经济发展质量。正是基于于以上考虑,本文在系统综述了国内外关于能源消费与经济增长之间关系研究现状的基础之上,立足于我国工业行业,结合我国工业行业的能源消费变动趋势和基本特征,搜集整理影响我国工业品出厂价格的相关数据,建立工业品出厂价格指数与能源消费之间的数学模型,并使用相关软件对其进行实证分析。考虑到是为工业行业提高产业竞争力提供政策思路,本文运用逐步回归分方法对主要影响因素进行提取,结果发现能源消费量、能源价格指数、能源利用效率和原油价格是影响我国工业品出厂价格指数的主要因素。然后,运用Eviews5.0专业软件对我国工业品出厂价格指数影响因素进行回归模型分析,结果表明：能源消费量、能源价格指数和原油价格与工业品出厂价格指数具有正相关关系,而能源利用效率与工业品出厂价格指数具有负相关关系。因此得出可以利用现代先进技术手段降低能源消费量,相应的提高能源利用效率,减少对能源的依赖度来降低工业行业工业品生产成本,从而为提高工业行业产业竞争力提供政策思路。在对整个工业行业进行实证分析的基础之上,本文选取工业部门中的化学工业、文教体育品制造业、纺织业、造纸及制品业、电力工业、食品工业、建筑工业、皮革工业这八个具有代表性的行业,对这八个行业的能源消费对工业品出厂价格影响和排名度进行简单的分析,并选取工业品出厂价格指数、能源消费量、能源利用效率和能源价格指数作为考察因素对这八个行业进行产业竞争力的因子实证分析。最后,基于实证分析的结果,本文在提出结论的同时,对我国能源消费的相关环节提出了建议,相信对我国制定工业结构调整和长期能源战略以及提高工业行业产业竞争力提供一些有益的参考意见和启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening-up, China has high speed growth in economic, But on the other hand, the China’s current economic has shown that economic growth depend on high energy consumption, most of the industry improvement has more and more depend on energy consumption. Therefore, the restriction brought by the energy products to economy development emerged and becomes more and more obvious. How to correctly deal with relationship between energy and industry economy, and analysis the impact about energy consumption of industry economy to industry commodity prices, and reduce industry economy energy consumption cost, improve industry department international competitiveness which have important practical significance on policy ideas. This determines not only the establishment of the short term, medium and long-term energy development strategy in China but also relates to the future orientation of industry structure and the quality of economy development of the whole country.Based on above concerns, we systematically recall the study of the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth at home and abroad. The article is started with the industry sectors, on the basis of the changing tendency and basic characteristics of energy consumption in the main areas in industry sector of China. Then, we collect the data of influencing factors of Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI).Based on above concerns and empirical analysis the all industry economic, the paper extract the main factors using the method of stepwise regression analysis. The results indicate that energy consumption, energy price index, energy efficiency and crude oil price are the four main influencing factors of the Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). Subsequently, we make a model of influencing factors Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), by virtue of Eviews5.0. The results show that there has positive correlation between the energy consumption, energy price index, crude oil price and Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), however, there has negative correlation between energy efficiency and Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). So we can reduce the production cost of industry commodity by using modern advanced techniques to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and provide policy ideas for industry department about how to improve the competitiveness. Then select eight typical industries from the industry, they are the Chemical industry, Cultural sports product manufacturing, textile industry, Paper & Paper Products, electric power industry, food industry, architectural industry, leather industry. We make simple analysis that the eight industries energy consumption impact on the Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI). And for the eight typical industries competitiveness with factors analysis, and the factors are the Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI), energy consumption, energy price index and energy efficiency.In conclusion, based on the outcome of demonstration and analysis, the article delivers suggestions on energy consumption in China, which are believed to be positive reference and inspiration for China to make future strategies in industrial structure adjustment and long-term energy strategy, as well as improve the industry competitiveness in China.更多还原