【作者】 郑作伟；

【导师】 孙卫明；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农村与区域发展， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 本课题以萌山水库为对象,进行相关的防洪风险研究工作。由于萌山水库洪水设计计算、洪水预报、水库调度等诸方面存在众多不确定性因素,有可能导致水库在防洪运用过程中出现风险。为了实现兴利效益与防洪目标的最佳结合,需对不同洪水状况下相应的防洪风险进行分析,在洪灾风险评价的基础上,考虑对社会、生态环境等方面的综合影响后,选择防洪风险管理对策,实施防洪风险决策,为正确地选择防洪决策提供科学依据。主要研究：(1)萌山水库流域洪水成因、洪水特性、工程状况及萌山水库防洪保护范围内的社会经济状况、抗灾能力；(2)不同洪水状况下相应的洪水危险程度；(3)防洪保护范围内的洪水灾害风险程度；(4)针对洪水灾害风险,可采取的防洪减灾对策；更多还原

【Abstract】 Oriented toward Taking Mengshan Reservoir in Zibo City, this research subject mainly deals with the study related to the risks of flood prevention. Because of numerous existing uncertainties such as design calculation, flood forecasting and reservoir dispatch, a variety of risks may arise in the process of flood-preventing practice. In order to achieve integration between civil benefits and flood-control, it is necessary to analyze the corresponding risks of different flood situations, which, together with considerations for social, ecological and environmental effects and selection of proper countermeasures against flood risks, is sure to provide scientific and reasonable basis for the decision-making of flood prevention. This thesis mainly deals with:1. The causes and characteristics of the floods in reservoir basin, the conditions of reservoir construction, the social and ecological status of the area as well as its anti-disaster ability;2. The hierarchy of danger under different flood situations;3. The flood risks levels in this area;4. The corresponding countermeasures that can be taken against the floods of different levels更多还原