【作者】 许鹏婧；

【导师】 董胜；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 边际油田的开发是集海洋油气资源之钻井、采油工程及海洋工程为一体的系统工程。如何提供既安全又经济的海洋环境条件设计标准,对于这一系统中的任何一种工程结构型式,都是至关重要的。由于海洋环境条件的复杂性、随机性和多样性,传统的海洋环境条件设计标准无法计算多种环境条件同时出现的概率,往往过高地估计环境条件设计参数,造成不必要的投资浪费,甚至使得部分边际油田不适于开采。目前,在如何降低边际油田开发建设成本成为制约海上油田能否开发建设的核心问题。本论文则从海洋钻采平台所处环境条件出发,以我国渤海某区1970年至1993年风暴过程的后报资料为基础,针对该区域风暴过程的特点,考虑风暴发生频次的影响,应用联合分布理论,尝试引入二维最大熵分布模式来进行海洋环境荷载的统计分析,并应用几种不同的推算方法来确定风浪参数设计标准,比较择优,合理降低工程设计参数,从而达到降低投资成本,最终实现边际油田开采的目的。本论文将在统计分析渤海某区域风、浪边缘分布的基础上,构造二维联合分布,提出既能保证边际油田开发结构物的安全、又可降低经济投资的设计标准。主要研究内容如下：(1)基于年极值法和过阈法的风、浪边缘分布的长期统计分析；(2)单一因素极值分布拟合法探讨；(3)二维等效最大熵分布模式的提出；(4)边际油田开发中平台结构风浪设计标准的提出与比选。更多还原

【Abstract】 Oil is important resource for social and economic development in every country. Marginal oil field exploitation is a system engineering including drilling operation, oil extraction, and platform construction. It plays an important role to propose ocean environmental conditions criteria for structural safety and investment reduction. As the complexity randomness and diversity of the marine environment, the probability of variety environmental conditions can not be calculated by the traditional design standards for the marine environment. Traditional design standards often overestimated the design parameters, resulting in unnecessary waste of investment. At present, how to reduce the costs of marginal oil field development and construction is the core issues. Based on observed and hindcast data, Bivariate Poisson maximum entropy distribution is adopted to calculate the probability of extreme wind velocity and wave height. Different statistical models are compared. Calculation results are given as decision-making references for departments of government, planning, and design. The main content of this study is as follows:(1) The long-term statistical analysis of marginal distribution is used in this paper to predict the values of extreme wind and wave surge by both the Annual Maximum Method and the Peak Over Threshold Method;(2) Calculate and compare method of single factor extreme value distribution;(3) Proposed bivariate Poisson maximum entropy distribution;(4) Bivariate Poisson maximum entropy distribution is used to estimate the return values of wind velocity and wave height hindcasted in offshore area of bohai. Different criteria of design parameters are compared for marginal oil field exploitation.更多还原