【作者】 张春海；

【导师】 游桂云；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 财产保险对于社会稳定,提高国家的社会福利水平以及促进地区的经济发展,都起着至关重要的作用。随着我国财产保险市场的开放,山东省财产保险市场快速成长,经营主体数量迅速增加,竞争日趋激烈。自山东省恢复财产保险业务以来,财产保费收入呈现出每年递增的局面,从1987年的2.3亿元增长到2008年的164.2亿元。但山东省的财产保险深度和密度却相对较低,2008年山东省的财产保险深度和保险密度分别为0.44和144.33元/人,在全国处于中等偏下水平。因此,如何把握山东省财产保险需求的特点,开发出有竞争力的产品以赢得市场,提高山东省的财产保险需求水平,对各财产公司来说是一个十分紧迫的问题。另外,对政府监管机构来说,如何最大限度地刺激财产保险需求,保障财产保险市场的稳定健康发展,也是一个值得研究的问题。本文以山东省财产保险市场作为研究对象,分析山东省财产保险需求的状况,并对山东省财产保险市场的供给状况进行分析和评价,进而提出促进财产保险供需均衡的建议,为保险公司开发财产保险产品和内部管理等方面以及相关保险监管部门的政策制定提供参考性意见。本文的研究建立在财产保险需求经济理论之上,通过对财产保险产品和财产保险需求的理论阐述,运用自然对数多元线性回归模型和ARMA时间序列模型来研究山东省财产保险需求状况,从中发现了各因素对财产保险需求的影响方式和影响程度的大小,同时探究了山东省财产保险需求的时间序列动态特征和季节波动规律。另外,本文还运用多元统计中聚类分析的方法对山东省财产保险需求水平与国内其他省份进行了分类和比较,并在此基础上对山东省财产保险市场在国内所处的地位进行了科学的评价。接着,本文对山东省财产保险市场供给状况进行了分析和评价。最后,在前面实证分析结论的基础上,对财产保险公司提出了有关产品开发和内部管理等方面的意见,对保险监管机构提出了监管方面的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Property insurance plays an very important role for social stability and raising the country’s social welfare level and also promoting regional economic development. With the opening of China’s property insurance market, the property insurance market in Shandong province of which the competiton becomes increasingly fierce has a rapid growth, and the number of its business entities is also increasing. Since the reinstatement of the property insurance business in shandong province, the insurance premium income is from 2.3 billion yuan in 1987 to 16.42 billion yuan in 2008. However, the depth and desity of property insurance in Shandong province which is 0.44 and 144.33 yuan respectively is relatively low and at the national level they are in the lower middle-class. Therefore, how to seize the characteristics of the demand on the property insurance as well as improving the level of the demand for property insurance on the property insurance are the urgent issues. In addition, how to maximize the demand of property insurance and maintain the market stable is also worthy of study to the government regulatory bodies.This paper with the object of the property insurance market in Shandong province analysis the situation of the demand for property insurance as well as the supply and presents the proposals of a balanced supply and demand for the property insurance development so as to provide reference proposals for the relevant insurance regulatory authorities.The study based on the economic demand theory of the property insurance, through the theoretical explanations of property insurance products, uses the natural logarithm of multiple linear regression model and ARMA time series model to study the demand for property insurance in Shandong province, from which we could find the various demand factors and magnitude of the impact and also the time series and seasonal fluctuation of the dynamic characteristics of the demand for property insurance. In additon, the paper uses multivariate statistical method of cluster to analyse the level of demand for property insurance in Shandong province. Then the paper gives the analysis and evaluation on the supply situation of the property insurance market in Shandong province. Finally, based on the previous empirical analysis, the paper gives the advice to the property insurance company on product development and internal management, and policy recommendations to the insurance regulatory agencies.更多还原