【作者】 颜云峰；

【导师】 左军成； 李磊；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 流体力学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 全球气候变暖,海平面上升是近几十年来全球变化的重要特征之一,日趋成为世界各国关注的焦点。此外海平面还存在着显著的季节变化。海平面的长期变化和季节变化都将对潮波系统产生影响。本文对海平面长期变化和季节变化对潮波系统的影响进行了系统讨论,主要开展了下面一些工作：利用1992年7月至2007年9月AVISO高度计资料融合数据,分析东中国海海平面变化特征；采用ECOMSED模型模拟东中国海潮波；假定未来海平面的变化趋势与计算出的近16年海平面变化趋势一致,线性外推50年后和100年后的东中国海海平面,模拟分析海平面长期演变对东中国海潮波趋势变化的影响；模拟不同季节东中国海潮波,分析海平面季节变化对潮波的影响。研究表明东中国海海平面在10月份相对最高,4月份相对最低,海平面线性变化速率具有明显的空间分布。东中国海海平面总体是上升的,只在浙闽沿岸、台湾海峡厦门、宫古群岛、冲绳岛下降。海平面上升速率在3～5mm/a之间,沿岸某些海域上升速率较大,高达9mm/a,例如渤海湾顶。在海平面长期趋势变化过程中,各分潮振幅和迟角在深水大洋区基本保持不变,在浅水区变化幅度较大。半日分潮受海平面长期变化影响较全日分潮大。半日分潮振幅在大部分海域呈增大趋势,只在小部分海域呈减小趋势,如长江口、钱塘江口,振幅增幅较大的海域依次为；苏北辐射沙区、江津湾、海州湾、西朝鲜湾和辽东湾；迟角在渤海、黄海、东海的浅水区基本呈减小趋势,只在无潮点附近呈现增大趋势。全日分潮振幅在整个渤海、南黄海、北黄海东北部、浙江南部至福建沿岸呈增大趋势,其余海域呈减小趋势；迟角在渤海海峡无潮点东侧海域,南黄海、东海的东部海域呈现增大趋势,其余海域呈减小趋势。全日分潮无潮点都有向东南方向偏移的趋势；半日分潮无潮点没有类似移动规律,但都有不同程度的偏移。海平面的季节变化使潮波系统表现出一定的变化规律,主要包括振幅和迟角两方面。相较于年均海平面下的潮波,各分潮振幅、迟角在冬春季与夏秋季基本呈反相变化。半日分潮振幅变化幅度明显大于全日分潮,M2分潮振幅年较差达5cm,S2分潮年较差达2cm,全日分潮振幅变化基本不超过lmm,年较差小于2mm。各分潮迟角在无潮点附近变化较大,在远离无潮点的近岸区域,半日分潮迟角变化的最大值在2。左右,全日分潮迟角变化的最大值在10左右。更多还原

【Abstract】 With global warming, sea level rise is one of the typical characters of global change in recent dacades, and has become the focus of world attention. In addition, Sea level variation has the significant seasonal period. The sea level variation of both the long term and seasonal scale affects the tidal wave system. Such effect will be discussed in detail in this paper in the follwing aspect:the AVISO altimeter merged data from Oct.1992 to Nov.2007,is used to analyze the sea level variations of the East China Sea; ECOMSED model is used to simulate the tidal wave of the East China Sea; assuming the sea level change trend in future is the same as the calculated trend of the past 15 years,the tidal wave of 50 and 100 years in future is simulated,to analyze the effect of the sea level long term variation; the tidal wave in different seasons is also simnulated to annlyze the effect of the sea level seasonal variation.The analysis shows that the sea level in the East China Sea is relatively the highest in October and lowest in April, and the sea level change rate has obvious spatial distribution. The sea level of the East China Sea is totally ascending, only in the coastal regions of Zhejiang, Fujian, Xiamen, Taiwan Strait, Miyako Islands,Okinawa Island and the Japanese Sea is descending. The basic ascending rate is about 3～5mm/a, but in some coastal areas,up to 9mm/a, for example on the top of Bohai Bay.In the process of the sea-level long term variation, the tidal amplitude and the phase lag matains basically unchanged in the deep ocean, but change significantly in the shallow water. Semidiurnal tidal constituents vary more than that of diurnal tidal constituents.The amplitude of semidiurnal tidal constituents tends to increase in most regions while decrease in some region, for example,the mouth of Yangtze River, the areas where the amplitude increased lager in turn are Radiated Sandbank of the northern region of Jiangsu, Jiangjin Bay, Haizhou Bay, West Korea Bay and Liaodong Bay. The phase lag of semidiurnal tidal constituents tends to increase in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, shallow waters of East China Sea, and derease only in the areas near the amphidromic points.The amplitude of diurnal tidal constituens tends to increase in the Bohai Sea, South Yellow Sea, northeast of the North Yellow Sea, coastal areas from the Southern part of Zhejiang to Fujian, while decrease in the other areas.The phase lag of diurnal tidal constituens tends to increase in the east area of the Bohai Strait and the eastern part of the South Yellow Sea and East China Sea. The amphidromic points of diurnal tidal constituens all tend to migrate to the southeast, and those of diurnal tidal constituens have no similar routine,but migrated more or less.Sea level variation of the seasonal scale makes tide wave system to behave some variation rule, including the amplitude and the phase lag. Compared to the annual tidal waves, the variety of the amplitude and phase lags in Winter and Spring is basically converse to that in Summer and Autumn. The amplitude of semidiurnal tidal constituents changes much higher than that of diurnal tidal constituents.The amplitude’s annual range of M2 tial constituent is up to 5cm, and that of S2 tial constituent is up to 2cm.The amplitude of the diurnal constituents basically changes within lmm, and the annual range is less than 2mm.The phase lags changes a lot in the vicinity of the amphidromic points. While in the coastal region away from the amphidromic points, the amplitude’s maximum change of semidiurnal tidal constituents is about 20,and that of diurnal tidal constituents is about 10.更多还原