【作者】 黄春；

【导师】 冯启民；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 防灾减灾工程及防护工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是一个多地震的国家,而地震又是一种破坏性极大的自然灾害。城市由于聚集了大量的人口和财富,成为了自然灾害的集中承载体。目前,国内外公认的减轻地震灾害的最有效措施是对工程结构进行合理而又经济的抗震设防,首要问题是确定城市的抗震设防标准。确定该标准非常重要,它不仅关系到工程和城市的安全,而且涉及国家和民众的投资。国内外还没有较好的方法用以确定工程结构的抗震设防标准。本文考虑到我国城市的特点,将城市抗震性态(城市建筑地震危害性、地震经济损失、抗震投资等)作为确定设防标准的优化指标,设防水准作为优化变量。综合考虑安全、经济要素,构造确定抗震设防标准的优化设计决策模型,使抗震设防在投入和产出方面达到最佳平衡。本文的研究主要包括以下几个方面：1、研究了抗震设防标准的优化设计决策模型,模型的设计目标是以最小的抗震投入取得未来地震灾害损失最大程度的减少。该模型的决策方法以结构初始造价增量分析和地震经济损失分析为基础。建立抗震设防标准优化目标函数,优化变量为地震动参数,包括地震烈度与地震动峰值加速度,充分考虑了未来抗震设防标准的发展趋势。2、在初始造价增量分析方面,针对青岛市主要类型的建筑物,完成了建筑结构初始造价增量比与设防烈度之间对应关系的研究。并通过曲线拟合得出了初始造价增量比与地震加速度峰值的回归方程。3、进行了青岛市建筑物易损性分析。对单体建筑物进行地震作用变形验算,得到其地震易损性曲线；将同类结构地震易损性曲线进行概率计算,得到群体建筑结构的地震易损性曲线,结合汶川地震统计数据,给出结构破坏判断标准,进而形成群体建筑物的易损性矩阵。4、在研究地震经济损失期望值的估计方法时,考虑了直接经济损失和间接经济损失。经过研究分析,把抗震救灾投入费用归为间接经济损失,并给出间接经济损失与直接经济损失的比值ψ,方便了地震经济损失期望的计算。5、根据完成的初始造价分析以及地震经济损失分析,利用抗震设防标准优化设计决策模型建立的最佳设防标准解析表达式,求得极小值对应的设防水准,并据此提出相应的设防要求。本文以青岛市的数据为例子,通过抗震设防标准优化设计模型,得到青岛市最优设防标准为7度设防。按照抗震设计规范,青岛市目前的抗震设防标准为6度设防,针对实际情况,分析了在青岛市提高抗震设防标准的必要性与可行性,为青岛市的抗震设防工作提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a country with high seismic, and the earthquake is a kind of devastating natural disasters. It is important for industry and structure to fortify against earthquake. Cities, gathered a large number of population and wealth, became exposure of natural disasters. At present, widely recognized as the most effective reduction of earthquake disaster measures are fortification against earthquake construction engineering. The seismic fortification criterion is very important, it’s not only related to the project and the city’s security, but also national and public investment. Now, there is no good way to establish the engineering seismic fortification criterion.This article take into account the characteristics of our cities, take the Seismic behavior of the city (include city building seismic hazard, earthquake economic losses, seismic investment etc.) as optimal target for determining the seismic design criterion, take the fortification levels as optimal variable. Considering security and economic factors, we establish the optimal design of seismic fortification criterion decision model in order to solve the balance problem on inputs and outputs of the earthquake-proof.The main work of this study includes five parts as follow:1、An optimal design of seismic fortification criterion decision model is studied in this paper, the design goal is minimizing the sum of the extra cost of structure with earthquake protection and economic losses. The decision-making method of the model is based on the initial cost analysis and the earthquake loss analysis of structures. We establish the objective function, which optimal variable is the Ground motion parameters, including seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration.2、By studying the initial cost about the main types of buildings in Qingdao, we get relationships among initial cost rate and seismic intensity. And obtain regression equation between the original cost rate and peak acceleration by curve fitting.3、The structural vulnerability analysis is carried out. Based on the dynamic analysis on single structure in building level under seismic effect, we obtain analytical vulnerability curve of single. And then, probability tools are utilized to estimate group building’s vulnerability curve. Combine with earthquake statistics, a standard of structural damage is given. At last, we obtain the group structure’s vulnerability matrix.4、In the course of studying earthquake economical losses estimation method, direct economical losses and indirect economical losses are considered. Expenses providing disaster relief is belong to indirect monetary losses. For simplicity, we defined the factorΨ as the ratio of direct economical losses.5、Based on the completion of the initial cost analysis and the earthquake loss analysis of structures, the analytical expressions of the optimal seismic fortification criterion is deduced by using the decision-making method, the seismic intensity corresponding to the least expected total loss can be regarded as the optimal seismic fortification criterion and requirements of construction can also be suggested.Take the data of Qingdao as example, we obtain optimal seismic fortification criterion is seven. But now, the current standard is six. On the circumstances, the necessity and possibility analysis of increase optimal seismic fortification criterion is carried out, which will be used in the earthquake relief work of Qingdao.更多还原