【作者】 唐宁；

【导师】 戴桂林；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 当前在发展中国家经济一体化的研究较多集中于中日韩自由贸易区的研究,本文跳出中日韩自由贸易区的研究视角,以中日韩经济圈为研究对象进行分析。在发展中国家经济一体化问题的研究方面,诸多学者没有具体针对发展中大国进行相关研究,相关理论较为缺失。同时,其研究较多集中于定性分析的层次,即使是定量分析也远没有模型化的程度。在这种研究现状下,中日韩经济圈作为中日韩三国经济一体化的组织形式,日益引起学者的重视。本文立足发展中大国的研究视角,对学者在研究中涉及较少的发展中国家和大国相结合的研究角度对中国融入中日韩经济圈的相关效应进行分析。本文对中国融入中日韩经济圈的理论基础(关税同盟理论、自由贸易区理论、共同市场理论)进行了详细分析,在此基础上结合发展中国家经济一体化理论对发展中大国参与经济一体化的相关效应进行了理论分析。同时,中日韩经济圈正在逐渐形成阶段,其最终是否能形成还缺乏相关的分析。因此,本文首先分析了中日韩经济圈的发展现状,介绍了中日韩经济圈在世界经济中的地位以及其发展性的历程。在介绍了基本情况之后,本文对中日韩经济圈形成的可能性进行了分析,从对外经济开放度、出口结合度、产业内贸易指数和比较优势指数的角度分析了贸易可行性分析,从中日韩投资的发展历程分析了投资可行性分析,说明中日韩三国经济的互补性仍然是中日韩经济圈形成的基础。中日韩经济圈的最终形成使本文的分析具有实践意义。在构建了本文分析的理论框架基础以后,本文将这些理论结合中日韩经济圈发展的具体实际情况,对中日韩经济圈的贸易效应和投资效应进行了理论分析,对中日韩经济圈给中国带来的贸易效应和投资效应给出了具体的量化公式,这也是本文在理论层面的一个创新点。本文以具体的效应理论为指导,从中日韩三国的合作机制的博弈分析、中国对中日韩经济圈的影响以及中日韩经济圈为中国带来的贸易创造效应进行了实证分析。在圈内合作博弈分析的层次,本文借鉴合作博弈的模型分析了中日韩圈内合作磋商建制的方向,即三国应建立磋商机制以为获益较小国或受损国给予补偿,以提高三方合作的积极性。中国作为发展中大国,本身经济的快速增长和对世界影响的提高将为中日韩经济圈进行了正向效应,可见中国对中日韩经济圈带来正向的净福利。同时,中国作为中日韩经济圈的成员国,中日韩经济圈的形成和发展必然对中国产生影响,因此本文借鉴前人的研究成果并加入发展中大国影响因素,建立了贸易创造效应的量化模型,得出中国所得到的贸易创造效应大于日韩两国的具体结论。本文在理论和实证分析的基础上,基于分析的结论为中国融入中日韩经济圈提出了贸易政策和投资政策的选择,并强调了应以次区域的方式进行合作的先期试点以为今后合作的进一步推进提供经验。总之,本文以发展中大国的视角为新的研究方向,将效应分析的通用理论应用到中日韩经济圈的范围内,通过实证分析提出具体的逻辑结果,从而为中国参与中日韩经济圈提供政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As long as increasing development of economic globalization, the globalization of goods and factor mobility facilitates that many countries take consideration about economic integration organization and their functions. After World War II, tariff levels around the World are decreasing lower and lower, bringing the trade liberalization. Along with the multilateral trade liberalization, the various economic integration organizations are in large numbers in all over the Word. Economic integration has become the mainstream of world economic development, which is one of the trends. Therefore, the researches about the effects of economic integration are more and more.China, Japan and South Korea play important roles in the World ecomomy, so many scholars have increasingly consider these effects. China is the third-largest economy of all the countries in GDP, only after the United States and Japan. Especially after the current financial crisis, the ability of China’s withstanding risk has become an important object of studies. Moreover, Japan and South Korea are China’s important partners in trade and investment. Therefore, the economic relations between China, Japan and South Korea become a focus. The economic cycle of China, Japan and South Korea is one type of economic integration organization. Therefore, this dissertation studies about the economic cycle of China, Japan and South Korea is in the perspective of economic integration organization.One classification between developed countries and developing countries, another classification between power countries and unpower countries are two classifications in the studies of the effects of economic integration organization. China is a typical representative of a developing power, the above-mentioned classifications have no guidance on China’s participation in the related effects of integration organization. Therefore, in this dissertation, considering the developing power is to analyze the related effects of economic integration organization.In this dissertation, after giving a comprehensive definition of a developing power and a comprehensive study of international economic integration, the relevant static and dynamic effects are to be considerations. The static effect mainly consist of trade creation, trade diversion, as well as the terms of trade effects, the differences between these three effects with the traditional developing countries are also considered. Similarly, the dynamic effects are on the basis of how the developing power affect the world economy. On the basis of many researches of China, Japan and South Korea, the positions and the development process of these three countries are explained and analysis.At the same time, this dissertation gives conclusions supported by large amounts of data and analyzes the indicators of the relationships among them, from the aspects of exports combined degrees, the analysis of intra-industry trade, comparative advantage analysis as well as investment situations.About the empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis are both used in this dissertation, the qualitative analysis of the economic circle’s effects, the quantitative analysis of China’s influence on the economy cycle, the economy cycle’s influence on China, and the three-cooperative game. From these aspects, the conclusions are as followings:the growth of China’s GDP, the increasing proportion of import and export in the world facilitate the positive effects on economic circle; the establishment of economic zone among China, Japan and South Korea bring the largest creation effect in the three countries; consultative consultation mechanism in China, Japan and South Korea should be established.After the empirical analysis, recommendations are proposed on how China parcitipate this economy cycle. And after defining the objectives and content of this economy cycle, China’s trade policies and proposes a promoting measures and steps of cooperation are being introduction.In short, based on the perspective of the developing power, this dissertation acquires the relevant conclusions among China, Japan and South Korea, which provide the guidance for the participation in this economy cycle including these three countries.更多还原