【作者】 易石其；

【导师】 陈赟； 何湘波；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近20年来,我国的公路建设得到了飞速发展,对国民经济的发展起到了重要的推动作用。然而随着公路工程项目施工环境和组织形式的多样性、复杂性演变趋势,在项目风险事件中隐含的主体行为风险越来越突出,甚至成为了施工过程中的主导风险。因此,对公路工程项目施工阶段的主体行为风险所包含的风险因素进行分析,对主体行为风险的形成机理深入研究和探讨,很有现实的必要。本文结合主体行为风险研究的发展现状和相关研究成果,从公路工程项目利益的角度出发,提出了公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险的定义,对公路工程项目施工阶段的主体行为风险的概念、特征和分类进行了分析;继而从主体追求自身利益最大化、主体掌握的信息不完备、主体自身能力不足三个角度对公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险的形成机理进行了探讨,进而从主体行为的角度对承包商、业主代表、监理单位、材料设备供应商和政府部门的行为进行了分析,阐述了我国公路工程项目施工建设过程中存在的主体行为风险因素,建立了一套公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险评估的指标体系,其中包括6个二级指标和32个三级指标,二级指标分别为:承包商行为风险、业主代表行为风险、监理单位行为风险、材料设备供应商行为风险、政府部门行为风险和设计单位行为风险;再根据主体行为风险的特征,采用AHP-灰色聚类方法建立了公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险评估模型,并利用该模型对ZH高速公路项目的施工实际进行了实证分析,验证了本文构建的评估指标体系的可行性和有效性,最后给出了防范公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险发生的措施和建议。文章对公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险形成机理的探讨、对施工阶段主体行为风险因素的分析和指标体系的构建、对主体行为风险进行防范的措施和建议,丰富了公路工程项目施工风险管理理论,对降低我国公路工程项目施工具有一定的借鉴作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent twenty years,China’s road construction has made rapid development,it played an important role for the development of the national economy’s promotion. However, along with the highway engineering project construction environment and organizational form evolution trend of the diversity and complexity, the subjects’behavior risk implicit in the project risk events is becoming more and more prominent, it even becomes to be the dominant risk . According to this , analyzing the risk factors contained in subjects’behavior risk and researching the formation mechanisms of subjects’behavior risk may have strong necessity in fact.Based on the highway engineering project profit , this paper combined with the current development status and related research on the subjects’behavior risk, we proposed the definition of highway construction phase of subjects’behavior risk and analyzed its conception, features and category. Then based on the angles of pursuing his own benefit maximization, subjects’information incomplete, subjects’ability is insufficient, highway project construction phase of the subjects’risk formation mechanism was discussed, and from the angles of the subject behavior, the owner’s representative, the contractor supervision, material suppliers and government behavior is analyzed, and elaborated risk factors on Chinese road project construction process. From this we established a set of highway project construction phase subjects’ behavior risk evaluation index system, there are six secondary indexes and 32 third grade indexes in it . The secondary indexes contain contractor behavior risk, the owner’s representative behavior risk, supervision units behavior risk, material supplier behavior risk, government departments behavior risk and the design units behavior risk. According to the characteristics of subjects’behavior risk, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering evaluation model and combining with ZHANG-HUA highway project construction practical example analysis, we get the measures and suggestion against the subjects’behavior risk happens on the highway engineering project construction phase. This paper verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model and index system.The discussion of the formation mechanism of subjects’behavior risk, the construction of the subjects’behavior risk and the analyzing of the risk factors, the measures and suggestion of preventing subjects’behavior risk, enriched the construction of highway project risk management theory. It has certain reference function to reduce the risk of highway project construction.更多还原