【作者】 王振江；

【导师】 端木琳；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 城市能源消耗量大幅度增长、常规能源储备量减少、能源利用率普遍偏低是我国面临的主要城市能源问题。而我国城市规划体系中涉及到城市能源的主要是电力规划、热力规划以及燃气规划三个独立的系统,尚没有完善的城市能源规划系统,这就导致了能源规划与城市总体规划脱节、各部门缺乏沟通协调,甚至出现竞争现象等。为此,已有专家提出了基于动态和空间分布的城市能源综合规划方法,该方法考虑了各种能源专项规划的相互协调,从时间和空间分布的角度考虑能源需求的动态特性,以达到能源的合理配置和高效利用。全面、准确的了解建筑冷负荷水平及动态特性是此方法得以实施的关键。城市规划阶段提供的建筑信息有限、缺乏足够有效的建筑能耗统计数据等直接导致常规的冷负荷预测方法难以应用于城市规划阶段。本文从理论分析、软件模拟、统计预测三个方面探讨了适用于城市规划阶段建筑逐时冷负荷的预测方法。首先从建筑冷负荷影响因素的显著性分析入手,提出了标准建筑模型的限制因子：建筑物理因子、内扰因子和外扰因子；然后以此为基础建立负荷因子法预测模型和DeST软件模拟预测模型。分析了灰色马尔科夫理论的优缺点及在建筑冷负荷预测领域的可行性,提出了模型的建立步骤及应用模式。本文首先从理论分析的角度建立了负荷因子法预测模型,包括建筑围护结构冷负荷预测模型、新风负荷预测模型、人员负荷预测模型、照明负荷预测模型和设备负荷预测模型五个子模型。并通过不同计算方法的结果比较、模拟与实测结果的比较等角度验证冷负荷指标及动态特性的精度。结果表明：采用不同计算方法计算得到的冷负荷指标的相对误差不超过10%,满足预测精度的要求,且负荷因子法和DeST的模拟结果在动态特性上是一致的；通过北京某办公楼实测数据与预测结果比较,在整个空调期,除了个别时刻外,预测误差基本在20%以内,满足规划阶段对预测精度的要求。结合负荷因子法和灰色马尔科夫理论提出了适用于城市规划阶段建筑冷负荷逐时预测模型的应用模式。然后建立了基于DeST软件的模拟预测模型用于分析城市各类型建筑的冷负荷动态特性。本文建立的三种建筑逐时冷负荷预测模型可以应用于城市规划的不同阶段：负荷因子法适用于结合具体地块的规划信息,从理论的角度即时分析该地块规划建筑的冷负荷情况；结合灰色马尔科夫预测模型,可以完成下一年该建筑的逐时冷负荷预测；DeST软件模拟可以分析某城市某类型建筑的冷负荷水平。总之,城市规划阶段建筑逐时冷负荷的准确预测,对城市能源系统的优化配置具有重要的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Substantial increasing of energy consumption, reducing of conventional energy reserves and low energy efficiency are the main urban energy problems facing China government. However, there is not perfect urban energy planning system. The planning of power supply, heating supply and gas supply are adiminidtrated by different authorities, considered in isolation without coordination, which led to unreasonable utilization of urban energy. Therefore, an integrated urban erengy planning method is provided, which analyzes the dynamical characteristics and spatial distribution of urban energy, considers intercoordination among special energy planning and dynamical balance between energy supply and demand to achieve the goal of reasonable allocation and high efficiency of urban energy. The key to carry out this planning method is the comprehensive and accurate understanding of building cooling load characteristics. However, the conventional prediction methods on building cooling load are difficult to be used at the urban planning stage because of the limited building information and the lack of adequate statistical data on building energy.In this paper, feasible building cooling load prediction methods are discussed based on theoretical analysis, simulation and statistical analysis. First, the determination of limiting factors for a standard building, including physical factor, internal factor and external factor, is provided after analyzing the significance of building cooling load influence factors. And then the Hourly Cooling Load Factor Method (HCLFM) model and simulation model based on DeST software are developed. At last, the advantages and disadvantages of Grey Markov theory and feasibility applied in building cooling load prediction fieldare analyzed. The steps and application mode are proposed.The Hourly Cooling Load Factor Method (HCLFM) based on theoretical analysis is developed, which is composed of the building envelope cooling load predicting model, infiltration load predicting model, occupant load predicting model, lighting load predicting model and equipment load predicting model. The predicted results are verified by comparing the results of different calculation methods and analyzing errors between measured results and predicted results. The results show that the prediction relative error of buling cooling load index is less than 10% meeting accurancy requirements in engineering field and the predicted results have the same dynamic characteristics based on HCLFM as that based on DeST software. Take an office building for example; the prediction errors are less than 20% during whole cooling period. The simulation model based on DeST software is developed to predict the dynamic characreristics of building cooling load and Grey-Markov model based on statistical data is developed to predict building cooling load index. Integrating the two methods mentioned above, the application mode of hourly building cooling load prediction model is provided at the urban planning stage.According to different background conditions, the different methods provided in this paper can be applied to analyze the hourly building cooling load. HCLFM is more feasible to a specific planned plot; the method integrating DeST simulation and Grey-Markov can be used to analyze the building cooling load of a type of building of a city.In a word, the accurate prediction of the hourly building cooling load has the most importmant significance in allocating and optimizating urban energy system.更多还原