【作者】 鲍智弥；

【导师】 张树深；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 环境科学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 物质流分析可以对环境-经济系统运行过程中物质的通量与分布进行系统的度量和解析,有助于研究经济系统的物质代谢机制与调控策略,对于探索物质流管理的可持续发展道路具有重要的理论和现实指导意义。目前物质流分析在区域层面的研究应用较少,且方法体系尚未统一规范。因此,针对区域层面进行其方法体系的探讨,对尚未开展实证研究的地区进行分析,具有重要意义。本文以国家层面的物质流分析框架为基础,根据区域环境-经济系统物质代谢特点以及区域层面基础资料特点,提出了将经济系统分为农业、工业、生活、建设和交通五大部门进行的区域环境-经济系统物质流分析的方法体系。并首次以大连市为对象开展物质流分析的实证研究,对其2001-2007年间的历年物质流全景,物质输入/输出规模和结构,以及强度指标、效率指标、依存度指标进行了分析。结果表明：(1)从物质流量看,大连市输入输出物质流量很大并呈现明显增大趋势,且经济增长与物质吞吐量呈正相关关系,说明大连市社会经济发展的“高投入,高消耗”特征仍然明显,其发展以资源环境的退化为代价。(2)从物质结构看,在输入端,非金属矿物、化石能源需求量最大,进口产品和金属矿物增长最快；在输出端,二氧化碳排放量巨大,大气污染增长最明显,固体废弃物在污染物质中比例最大。体现了工业部门和建设部门在大连市物质流中的主导地位,以及交通部门近年来的急速发展势头；揭示了大连市“高碳排放”的发展模式,以及较大的固废综合利用潜力。(3)物质消耗强度平均年增长率高于人口增长,低于经济增长；物质生产力逐年增大,但水平较低。说明资源利用效率近年来得到重视,但力度不够,有待加强。(4)物质对外依赖程度逐年增加,说明其发展过程对外界系统的资源环境造成了日益加大的压力。在物质流分析基础上,还进行了大连市环境库兹涅茨曲线分析和环境冲击影响分析,进而对其物质流管理的现状、趋势及关键点进行了探讨,针对性的提出了物质调控建议。文章所提出的方法适用于区域尺度物质流分析,它对国家物质流分析框架的继承使得其分析结果与其他大部分研究的对比有了一致性基础；分部门分析的思路框架使得研究结果更加深入、精细,且与宏观调控关联性更强。因而,该方法在实际运用中具有实用性和通用性,在理论上为区域物质流分析方法体系的建立提供了新的思路。实证研究填补了大连市物质流分析结果的空白,并揭示了大连市发展中资源利用与环境管理存在的问题,为其进行可持续发展的物质调控决策提供了量化参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Material Flow Analysis(MFA) is a method to measure and interpret material flux and distribution of an environmental-economic system. It is helpful to research society’s metabolism and its control strategies. And it is theoretically and practically meaningful for finding a sustainable way of material flow management. So far the research and application of MFA at regional level is comparatively rare.Its methodology has not been unified or standardized. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the methodology of MFA at regional level and research the unstudied regions.In this paper, the methodology of regional MFA is developed based on the framework of national MFA. According to the characteristics of material metabolism and the date base of a regional environmental-economic system, the economic system is divided into five sectors including Agriculture, Indusry, Life, Construction and Transportation. And for the first time the empirical research of Dalian is carried out.The panoramic views of material flows, the quantities and components of material input/output, as well as the indicators of intensity, efficiency and dependence from 2001 to 2007 are analyzed year by year. The results show that: (1)From the quantity point of view, each index of material input and output is large and has a significant growth trend. The growths in the economy and in material throughput have positive correlation. "High investigate, high consumption" of Dalian’s social economic development is still evident. And the development is at the cost of resource consumption and environmental degration.(2)As to the material components, non-metallic minerals and fossil fuels are the largest components of the material input. Imported products and metal ores are the fastest growing. On the other hand, carbon dioxide emission is enormous. The increase in air pollutants is significant. And the proportion of solid wastes in the pollution is large. It reflects the dominant roles of Industry and Construction in Dalian’s material flows and the rapid development of Transportation. It also reveals the "high carbon emissions" and the large potential for solid waste comprehensive utilization. (3) The average annual growth rate in material consumption intensity is higher than in population but lower than in GDP. The material productivity is increased but still low.It indicates resource use efficiency of Dalian draws the attention but still has to be improved. (4) Year by year the dependence on import increases, revealing that Dalian’s development has lager and larger impact on the external systems.Based on MFA of Dalian, environmental Kuznets curve and environmental impact factors are analyzed. And the status, trends, key points for material flow management are discussed to provide suggestions for decision making.The proposed method is suitable for regional MFA. Its inheritance of the framework of national MFA makes the comparability of the analysis results. The analysis of each sector realizes an in-depth and precise research of the society’s metabolism, so that the results are with stronger association of macro-control of the economic system. In practice, the method is practical and versatile. In theory it provides a new way of regional MFA. The empirical research of this paper fills the blank of MFA of Dalian, in which its problems in resource use and environmental management are revealed. And the quantitative references for the sustainable material regulation are provided.更多还原