【作者】 姜俊厚；

【导师】 韩敏；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 控制理论与控制工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 洪水风险计算即分析不同强度的洪水发生的淹没特征信息及其可能造成的洪灾损失,是洪水风险管理的基础性工作,起着十分重要的作用。由此而绘制的洪水风险图可以综合直观反映某一区域洪灾发生时的淹没特征信息、区域的地理特征信息和社会经济,使洪水风险图成为洪水风险管理的重要科学依据。因此,洪水风险计算对于洪水管理是非常重要的。由于地理信息系统(Geographical Information System, GIS)对现实世界的空间关系认识得更为具体、直观,而且具有强大的空间数据分析和管理能力,因而在洪水风险计算中引入GIS是十分有必要的。本文比较不同的洪水风险计算方法,根据实际情况采用水力学法结合历史水灾法进行洪水风险计算,在堤防险情模拟与实地考察基础上进行不同溃口、不同频率洪水的一维河道和二维洪泛区相耦合的洪水演进计算,得到洪水淹没范围、水深、历时等洪水淹没特征信息。为了将洪水特征信息以风险图的形式实现可视,应用相关软件实现洪水数据结果的批量处理和分析,以满足制图等使用要求,实现洪水数据的制图可视。本文进而根据相应的洪水淹没结果,对区域的避险建设的单因素进行分析,在地理信息系统环境中使用模糊隶属函数评价分析单因素特征,确定各因素的影响权重后进行模糊综合评价,得到区域的避险建设区划图,为洪泛区的规划建设提供决策信息,进一步扩展洪水风险结果应用范围。更多还原

【Abstract】 Flood risk calculation is the step that analyzes the probability of different intensity flood occurring and the following loses, and it is the groundwork for flood risk management, acting an important role. Flood risk map drawn from the above step can exhibits flood features, geographic elements and socio-economic information in the submerged area comprehensively and directly, and it can serve as the significant basis for flood risk management. Therefore, flood risk calculation is very important for successfully managing flood. Because Geographical Information System (GIS) has a more specific and direct understanding of spatial relations with its powerful spatial data analysis and management capacity, the introduction of GIS into flood risk calculation is very necessary.In this thesis, we study the theory and characteristic of different flood risk analysis methods and their relative technical routes. Then hydraulic method combined with history-flood method is adopted for flood risk analysis according to the actual situation. On the base of levee dangerous condition simulation and field visit in vulnerable places, the thesis calculates flood submerging by the way of coupling one-dimension river way and two-dimension flood plain in different vulnerable places and different flood frequency. For the purpose of visualizing flood data in the form of flood risk map, we realize the batch processing of flood result data to satisfy the demand of mapping. Finally, we analyze the single factor that affecting site construction, combining flood submerged area, and then fuzzy membership function is employed to analyze these factors. In the following, division map in the floodplain is figured out by the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, so that it can be used to provide decision information for flood plain construction and planning, and expand the application range of flood risk result.更多还原