【作者】 刘丽娜；

【导师】 胡彩虹；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 全球气候变化不仅对环境、生态和经济社会系统具有深远的影响,同时也会对河川径流的形成和水资源的开发造成一定的影响,在一定程度上增加了水资源的利用难度。分析和研究水库入库径流变化,掌握其变化的基本规律,可以为水库的防洪、供水灌溉提供可靠依据,对水库在国民经济发展中充分发挥其功能起到非常重要的作用。本文结合河南省科技攻关项目“气候变化对河南省水资源及洪涝灾害的影响研究”(072102320006)研究工作,选取陆浑水库和鲇鱼山水库控制流域为典型研究区域,采用SWAT模型,并对现状年以及未来气候情景下两个水库控制流域径流过程进行分析研究,主要内容如下：1)以陆浑水库控制流域及鲇鱼山水库控制流域为研究区域,运用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)分布式水文模型对影响水库径流模拟结果的主要参数进行了敏感性分析；并对两个研究区域的径流过程进行了模拟,结果表明：SWAT模型对陆浑水库和鲇鱼山水库控制流域长期天然径流变化过程模拟结果良好,能够较好地反映这两个流域径流的变化过程。2)运用蒙特卡洛、统计降尺度等方法生成未来气候情景下模型所需要的相应气象数据,并将生成数据作为SWAT模型的输入,研究了A1B、A2、B2情景下的径流变化过程,分析了气候变化对鲇鱼山水库和陆浑水库控制流域径流过程变化的影响。结果表明：未来气候情景下,陆浑水库和鲇鱼山水库控制流域气温、降水均呈增加趋势,从而引起两个流域年径流量呈小幅度增加趋势。3)径流变化不仅受气候、地形等因素的影响,下垫面条件发生变化也会间接地对径流变化造成影响,结合陆浑水库控制流域和鲇鱼山水库控制流域实际的土地利用情况,分析了未来气候情景下土地利用的改变对径流的影响。结果表明：流域林地减少时在未来气候变化情景下将导致年径流量的显著增加,而当林地增加时年径流量呈显著减少趋势。4)对全文所作的工作以及创新点进行总结,并指出文中方法的不足之处和需要完善的地方。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global climate change has taken far-reaching effects on the systems of environment, ecology, and economic society as well as on the formation of river runoff and the development of water resources, which will, to a certain extent, increase the difficulties in using water resources. The analysis on reservoir inflow changes and the acquirement of the basic law of its changes can provide a reliable basis for the reservoir on the aspects of flood control, water supply irrigation and greater efficiency, and can play an essential role in the improvement of national economy.In this paper, in terms of program that is The study on the influence of flooding disaster for the water resources in Henan Province for tackling key problems in science and technology of Henan Province (072102320006), the basins in Luhun Reservoir and NianYushan Reservoir are selected as study area, and the controls in runoff process for the two reservoirs in status quo and future climate are analyzed. The main contents are as follows:1) On the basis of Luhun Reservoir controlling basin and Nianyushan Reservoir controlling basin as study area, use SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) distributed hydrological model to take sensitivity analysis for the main parameters which will impact the results of Reservoir runoff simulation; meanwhile, simulate the runoff in the two study areas. It is showed that SWAT model has great simulation for the natural runoff changes of Luhun Reservoir basin and Nianyushan Reservoir control basin in long term, and better reflects the process of the two runoff changes.2) Take methods like Monte Carlo and statistical downscaling to create future climate meteorological data, and input the created data to SWAT model, research the process of runoff control changes under the condition of A1B、A2、B2, and analyze the influence of climate change on runoff change for the future Luhun Reservoir control basin and NianYushan Reservoir control basin. The results demonstrated that the temperature and precipitation of Luhun and NianYushan reservoir basin showed an increasing trend under future climate scenarios. 3) The runoff change is not only affected by climate, topography and other factors, but also affected by nderlying surface conditions that indirectly affect the runoff change. This paper integrates the actual land use situation of Luhun Reservoir control basin and NianYushan Reservoir control basin, analyzes that the effect of runoff which is caused by the change for the land use affect under future climate scenarios.The results demonstrated that when the woodland of river watershed decreases under future climate scenarios, it has a significant increase in runoff,but when the woodland of river watershed increases, it is a significant decrease in runoff.4) Summarize the whole workload and the innovations, and point out the inadequacies in this paper.更多还原