【作者】 李振；

【导师】 王杰；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 控制理论与控制工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 社会舆情在当今社会越来越受到关注。社会舆情在不同的语言环境,其内涵也不尽相同。总的来说,舆情的定义分为两种,广义舆情和狭义舆情。我们平时所关心的更多的是指狭义舆情。伴随互联网的快速发展,舆情又出现了新的表现形式网络舆情。建立舆情汇集和分析机制,畅通社情民意反映渠道是十六届四中全会《中共中央关于加强党的执政能力建设的决定》中提出的明确要求。对于网络舆情的获取、分析、预测将对构建和谐社会,维护社会安定,保证经济建设快速健康发展有着重要意义。近年来越来越多的学者开始关注网络舆情,对其进行相关的分析和研究。相关的科研文献也日益增多。其中,大量文献对于文本聚类、热点获取分析及语言倾向性等方向已经做出了深入研究,但对于网络舆情预测以及完整的网络舆情预测系统设计的研究尚属不多。本文通过对已有技术和知识进行分析总结的基础上,对于网络舆情预测系统进行设计,对于相关的关键技术进行了研究。本文的主要工作包括：1)分析了多种网络爬行策略,采用了基于启发搜索策略的网络爬行器,对网络数据进行抓取。2)对于舆情数据进行预处理。其中采用了基于层次主体树的文本聚类方法、基于话题关注度的热点获取技术、基于优化聚合表的数据聚合策略。3)讨论了灰色系统理论,使用灰色GM(1,1)模型构建了单项预测模型,给出了模型建立步骤,并分析了其局限性。4)分析了三种Markov预测方法的异同,采用了加权式Markov链预测方法。5)网络舆情预测系统设计,构建对于网络舆情的基于灰色理论和马尔科夫链的组合预测方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 People pay more and more attention to the public sentiment in present day society. The public sentiment in different language environment, its meaning is different. In general, the definition of public sentiment is divided into two, broad and narrow definition of public sentiment. We are usually more concerned about public sentiment is narrow. With the rapid development of Internet, public opinion has emerged a new form of internet public sentiment. The establishment of public sentiment collection and analysis mechanism, smooth channels for social conditions and public opinion is 10 Fourth Plenary Session, "the CPC Central Committee on Strengthening the Party’s governance capacity-building decisions" in the clear demands. For network analysis of public sentiment, acquisition, prediction will be building a harmonious society, maintain social stability and economic development to ensure rapid and healthy development of great significance.In recent years more and more scholars begin to study internet public sentiment and its associated analysis and research. Relevant scientific paper is increasing. Among them, a large number of documents for text clustering, hot spot analysis and language preference for such direction has been made in-depth study, but the forecast for the internet public sentiment and a complete network system design of the internet public sentiment forecast still not much.Based on the existing skills and knowledge to analyze and summarize the basis of internet public sentiment, A forecastsystem has been designed and the key technologies related to the study. This major work includes:1) The paper analyze a variety of network crawling strategy, using heuristic search strategies based on the network, crawler, crawling the data for the network.2) The public opinion data preprocessing. One of the main tree using the text based on hierarchical clustering method, based on the hot topics of concern about access to technology, optimization-based aggregation of data aggregation strategy table.3) The paper discuss the gray system theory, the use of gray GM (1,1) model for single prediction model was constructed, the steps are given model, and analyzes its limitations.4) The paper discussed three different Markov prediction method, using the weighted Markov Chain Model.5) IPS Forecast System is designed. The paper used a combination forecasting method based on gray theory and Markov chain.更多还原