【作者】 彭秋月；

【导师】 郭晶；

【作者基本信息】 浙江理工大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 开放条件下的风险对我国的影响具有区域差别。在本次国际金融危机的外部冲击下,东部地区经济深度下滑,这种区域层面的经济波动已成为影响国家经济稳定的重要因素,也凸显出区域产业安全问题的重要性。浙江作为我国改革开放的前沿省份,在内外部因素的共同作用下,产业安全问题日益突出。建立浙江省产业安全评价体系,对于准确评估浙江产业安全状况、制定合理的产业发展规划和政策、防范国际经济风险、促进区域经济持续健康稳定发展具有重要意义。本文在现有研究基础上,结合开放条件下浙江省宏观经济背景和产业发展特征,深入分析浙江省产业安全的影响因素,构建包含3个一级指标、7个二级指标、26个三级指标的分层次评价体系。选择浙江省16个重要产业,并将其归类为纺织服装、造纸及纸制品、木材加工及家具制造、化工业、装备制造业、交通运输设备制造业等六大类来作为实证分析的对象。根据大量公开的统计数据,通过比较分析法判断这几类产业的现实情况,并运用熵值法求得制造业各指标的具体权重,进而对以上六类产业的安全度进行实证估算。评估结果表明,浙江省造纸及纸制品业不安全,纺织服装、木材加工及家具制造业、化工业、装备制造业和交通运输业目前处于基本安全;各产业的不安全因素具有差别。文章最后从国家、区域政府和产业等层面提出了保障浙江省产业安全的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The risk from open economy makes different influence to China’s regions. Under the external shocks from this international financial crisis, eastern regional economy downturn deeply, and the regional economic fluctuations has become an important factor which impacts our nation’s economy, also highlights the importance of regional industrial security. Zhejiang, as one of most forward provinces which have been reforming and opening in China, under the interaction of internal and external factors, industrial security has been increasingly striking. To establish evaluation system for Zhejiang’s industrial security has an important meaning to evaluate the situation of Zhejiang’s industrial security, formulates rational plan and policy on industrial development, prevents international economic risks, promotes regional economic sustained healthy and stable development.On the basis of existing research, this paper connects with Zhejiang’s macro-economic environment and industrial development’s characteristics in open economy, thoroughly analyses the main factors that are influencing Zhejiang’s industrial security, and establishes a level-division evaluation system, including three first grade indexes, seven second grade indexes, twenty-six third grade indexes. The paper chooses sixteen important industries of Zhejiang, and classifies them as textile and clothing, papermaking and paper products, timber processing and furniture manufacturing, chemical industry, equipment manufacturing and transportation equipment manufacturing which are the objects of empirical analysis. Hereby, with the method of Comparative analysis, based on a large of public statistical data, the paper judges the actual situation of the industries, and uses entropy method to obtain the evaluation index weight about manufacturing industry, then estimates empirically their security’s degree. Positive analysis has proven that papermaking and paper products industry is under the condition of insecurity, textile and clothing, timber processing and furniture manufacturing, chemical industry, equipment manufacturing and transportation equipment manufacturing are in the fundamental security condition. In the last part, the paper makes suggestions from the aspects of nation, regional government and industry for ensuring the Zhejiang’s industrial security.更多还原