【作者】 陈建忠；

【导师】 王兆丰； 杨宏民；

【作者基本信息】 河南理工大学 ， 矿业工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是世界上煤与瓦斯突出最为严重的国家之一,煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测是防治煤与瓦斯突出的关键环节,而瓦斯突出预测的核心又是预测指标的敏感程度问题。为了确定潘三矿C13-1煤层的煤与瓦斯突出预测指标体系,本文主要采用了基于临界度的方差分析法和“三率”分析法确定了预测指标的敏感性,并采用基于隶属函数的模糊统计分析法和“三率”分析法确定了敏感指标的临界值。同时,本文还介绍和分析了国内外瓦斯突出预测方法和相应的指标体系以及敏感指标及其临界值的确定方法;在分析潘三井田地质演化史、地质构造特征以及潘三矿C13-1煤层煤与瓦斯突出特征的基础上,研究了潘三矿C13-1煤层煤与瓦斯突出影响因素;瓦斯放散动力学特征试验的研究为跟踪考察对象的确定以及敏感性分析提供实验室依据;同时,在分析单项指标存在的缺陷性以及煤与瓦斯突出复杂性的基础上,构建了包含两个单项指标的复合指标,并给出了计算程序;最后,在1742(3)轨道顺槽等三个掘进工作面考察了敏感指标及其临界值的应用效果,并分析了其经济效益和社会效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of the nations that have grievous coal and gas outburst problems,gas outburst prediction is the key technology of gas prevention and treatment,moreover,the core of outburst prediction is the system of sensitive indicator.In order to study the sensitive indicator and critical values of the NO.13 seam in Pansan coal mine,this paper determines the sensitivity of the predictors based on the critical degree of variance analysis and the "three rate" analysis ,And determines the critical value of sensitive index with statistical analysis of fuzzy based on membership function and the "three rate" analysis.At the same tiame,the paper introduces and analyzes the domestic and international coal and gas outburst forecasting methods and the corresponding index system,as well as the methods to determine sensitive index and their threshold.On the basis of analysis of geological history and geological evolution of structural characteristics in Pansan Coal Mine and the characteristics of coal and gas outburst in Pansan C13-1 coal seam,it studies factors of coal and gas outburst influence on Pansan C13-1 coal seam.Experimental study on dynamic characteristics of gas emission provides laboratory basis on the follow-up investigations to determine the object and the sensitivity analysis. It makes the concept of critical degree, and gives definitions and formulas.At the same time, on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of individual index, as well as coal and the complexity of gas outburst, constructs composite index containing two single index, and gives the calculation procedure. Finally, it examines the application of sensitive index and its threshold and analyzes its economic and social benefits .更多还原