【摘要】 对滇西实验场1992年以来地下流体前兆观测资料进行分析研究,选取应震效果通过R信度检验(对应MS≥5.0级地震)的8条单项前兆指标。综合考虑单项前兆指标虚报率和漏报率对指标信度的影响,对单项前兆指标利用数学模型进行综合处理,减少了虚报和漏报的次数,预测效果明显提高。利用分级预警模式分别建立了中期(T≤6个月)和短临(T≤3个月)预测模型。综合预测方案还提供了地点判定原则和震级估算原则。最终提供地震短临预测三要素。运用本综合预测方案对2011年腾冲5级双震、2013年洱源5级双震和德钦两次5级地震作用了较为成功的短临预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 By analyzing relationships between the observed precursory data of underground fluid and the earthquakes of MS≥5.0 since 1992 in WYEPSA,we pick out 8 one-item precursory indicators which can pass R-test,and compute their respective weights based on it’s false-report ratios and fail-to-report ratios. It is proposed a dynamic tracing and decision-making scheme for medium-term and short-term or imminent earthquake prediction in the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area(WYEPSA) based on a synthetic mathematical model in which each weight and corresponding ratios of 8 indicators is taken into account. Using this scheme we grade earthquake prediction into two models which are medium-term(within 6 months), short-term or imminent(within 3 months). This comprehensive prediction scheme also provides the principles of circling the potential risk area and estimating magnitude of predicted earthquake,and finally provides three elements of the short-term or imminent earthquake prediction. We did successful predictions for several double earthquakes with magnitude of M5.2 occurred in Tengchong June 20 th, August 9th, 2011 and M5.5、M5.0 occurred in Eryuan March 3rd、April 17 th, 2013 and M5.1、M5.9 occurred in Deqin August 28th、August 31 st, 2013 by applying this scheme.更多还原