【摘要】 大震年发生率的评定在地震区划中是一项非常重要的工作。但由于大震复发行为的复杂性,目前尚未建立合理的大震复发模型。本文通过美国地震区划图的截断G-R关系模型和特征地震模型组成的混合模型,利用活断层地质定量资料(滑动速率、古地震等)评定了大震的年发生率。结合我国的地震构造环境特征和资料的精细程度,将以上方法加以修正,并选择典型断裂进行了计算,同时还把计算结果与我国第三代、第四代地震区划图进行了比较和分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The estimation of annual rate of large earthquakes is a very important job in seismic zonation. Due to the complexity of the recurrences behavior of large earthquakes, the ideal model of large earthquake recurrences have yet not been developed. In this paper we evaluate the average annual rate of high earthquake intervals with application of a combined model used in the U.S. seismic hazard maps by the weighted cut-off G-R relationship model and characteristic earthquake model and fault quantitative data (slip rate and paleoearthquake sequence et al.). So the above method is revised according to the characteristics of China’s seismic tectonic environment and the research precision of quantitative data on active faults. With this combined model we calculate earthquake recurrence rates along some typical faults. Our results are compared with that from the third and forth seismic zonation maps of China.更多还原