【摘要】 本文结合华北地区几个地震统计区的实例,探讨了地震统计区的重要地震活动性参数b值和v4不确定性的主要影响因素及其特征,并研究分析了其不确定性的大小。结果表明,地震活动性参数的不确定性主要影响因素为样本统计时段、样本处理方法、统计下限震级、高震级年平均发生率等。在郯庐地震统计区,b值变化可达0.2以上,v4的变化可达1.4以上,汾渭地震统计区的不确定性也基本相当,河北平原地震统计区因为地震样本相对丰富,不确定性要小许多。更多还原

【Abstract】 For several seismic statistical zones in North China, the key factors causing the uncertainty of important seismicity parameters b and ν4 and the features of their uncertainty are discussed in this paper. The effect degree of uncertainty is also analyzed. It can be seen that the key influencing factors are statistical period, methods of processing statistic samples, lower limit magnitude and annual average occurrence ratio of large earthquakes. The variation ranges of b and ν4 in Tanlu seismic zone are as high as 0.2 and 1.4 respectively, which is similar as that in Fenwei seismic zone. In Hebei plain seismic zone, however, the variation is much smaller because of the sufficient statistic samples.更多还原